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just Justin Whitson
(ArcturusBear)
Re: Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/10/2013 21:31:26 MDT Print View

Thank you Franco.

Have you ever used the Silky brand saws? Worth the money or not?

Franco Darioli
(Franco) - M

Locale: Melbourne
Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/10/2013 21:43:31 MDT Print View

No but I have read good reports on them.
I have used a different version of the Bahco (good) and a few of the "chain saws" (useless to me...) and also made a smaller version of the Sven Saw (I did not know at the time that someone had already made it)
The Bahco is a pruning saw , so better than some if cutting green or not fully dry wood.
Look also for the Little Bug saw (from a fellow hiker)
The problem with some LW saws is that the blade is not kept in tension, the Little Bug is.
I used a bigger version of that H design decades ago.

TJ Wharton
(Thadjw)
Re: on 10/10/2013 22:10:44 MDT Print View

How unlikely is solar event that crushes the power grid?... You dropped some mumbo jumbo about special solar events... A great big event can happen independent of trend in magnitude of solar cycle... Yes, but we tend to see things that are of similar magnitude to what we've seen before. I'm not one of the scientists and I'll ask one sometime but the fact is the solar max we expected around this period is weak. I almost want to egg you on like some of the cough cough... contributors... to this thread but I'm trying to play this straight. This cycle is weak and an outlier event strong enough to damage infrastructure is highly unlikely. I'll research this more but the US is concerned about Sp Wx events effecting satellite function, impacting GPS accuracy, and impacting PGM accuracy... The systems also help with new types of weather modeling using detection of GPS signal interference at limb of the earth... It just isn't a strong enough concern to really be worried from what we've seen in the last 30+ years. A massively impactful event sounds neat but is wildly improbable.

Edited by Thadjw on 10/10/2013 22:12:09 MDT.

just Justin Whitson
(ArcturusBear)
Re: Re: on 10/10/2013 22:30:40 MDT Print View

I'm not completely sure of this, but my current understanding is that the Carrington event happened during a cycle much like ours in that it was relatively low amounts of sunspots overall. At least that is what i have read in some articles. I'm trying to look for more hardcore verification of this though.

Anyways, my basic point was and still is, scientifically speaking the Sun is a wild card which we cannot predict accurately that long into the future. Call that mumbo jumbo if you like. I call it, lack of information/intell on a huge, dynamic system (the Sun) that we need to learn a heck of a lot more about before we can make any science based predictions with any accuracy.

NASA for example, has been quite off regarding this cycle at least a couple of times now. I remember when they first came out a few years or so ago and said this Solar Max cycle was going to be a doozy. Then they said it was going to peak at such and such time. Now one person at NASA has said it looks like it will be a double peak cycle. Point is, lots of conjecture and guessing and definitely been wrong.

Regarding the unpredictable, uncertain nature of extreme Solar activity, here is an interesting quote from one of those (top) scientists who study the Sun,

"Reinforcing the unpredictable nature of the issue of when it will happen is Tom Bogdan, head of the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

'It’s the extreme solar events I’m worried about,' he said. 'It might not happen this solar cycle. But sometime in my lifetime or my children’s, that storm will be here. The question is ‘Will we be prepared for it?’?"

http://www.hlswatch.com/2011/06/26/a-carrington-event-how-seriously-do-we-take-low-probability-high-consquence-events/

Notice he doesn't sound very confident that we are currently prepared for it. We could fix this with a lot of work and money, but it has not been done yet.

Edited by ArcturusBear on 10/10/2013 22:33:29 MDT.

just Justin Whitson
(ArcturusBear)
Re: Re: Re: on 10/10/2013 23:14:55 MDT Print View

To prove my point, here are some links to some graphs that chart past recorded Sun spot numbers.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://linus.highpoint.edu/~atitus/ast121/Chapter_10/solar_atmosphere/sunspot_cycle.gif&imgrefurl=http://linus.highpoint.edu/~atitus/ast121/content.php?content%3D57&h=600&w=800&sz=18&tbnid=2P3A9uI4510cbM:&tbnh=92&tbnw=123&zoom=1&usg=__IgTEEtbT1vejxXyxN7lh4YZR0d4=&docid=IDBLku5J6XptkM&sa=X&ei=V4ZXUoKhAs-44AOx74Bw&ved=0CEUQ9QEwAw

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/800px-Sunspot_Numbers.png&imgrefurl=http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png&h=340&w=800&sz=121&tbnid=KD5SNNLYfe_UPM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=212&zoom=1&usg=__AwADxL0-m9Kt0RSci1xosD1xVrE=&docid=lTi3aTKGl7aGYM&sa=X&ei=V4ZXUoKhAs-44AOx74Bw&ved=0CEMQ9QEwAg

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.tmgnow.com/IMAGES/lassen1.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html&h=464&w=635&sz=53&tbnid=Jha88iG0Sn3wLM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=123&zoom=1&usg=__zsVAAPlL3veDgDsaAejjfWdlRLc=&docid=UMGy8GolEGqZfM&sa=X&ei=V4ZXUoKhAs-44AOx74Bw&ved=0CEcQ9QEwBA

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.climatedata.info/resources/Forcing/Sun-Spots/02a-Sunspot_butterfly_diagram.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/sunspots.html&h=724&w=898&sz=38&tbnid=nvFiV_tAWixcyM:&tbnh=98&tbnw=122&zoom=1&usg=__02Q3B5isnzjDdPVQTFwbPBLyqnI=&docid=THsdyLCf2xU7OM&sa=X&ei=V4ZXUoKhAs-44AOx74Bw&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBQ


Notice in ALL of these graphs, the spikes during the Carrington event time frame. Not a particularly impressive cycle number of overall Sunspots wise.

I may be full of wooh woo'ness and right brainness, but i do also know how to use my left brain especially when it's a subject that i care about, have previously researched,. Quite frankly, scientifically speaking, no one can say with any accuracy or certainty that the Sun cannot or will not produce a very massive energetic output in the near future. NOT even your scientist friends. Hence why i call it a "wild card".

If we didn't know, somehow, that the Carrington event hadn't happened, but we looked at those graphs and based on your premise, we might say, "oh look, nothing major happened during those past cycles, look how few Sunspots there were", and we would be totally wrong.

TJ Wharton
(Thadjw)
Re: on 10/11/2013 00:10:57 MDT Print View

Someone should start this as a new thread bc it takes too long to get to the bottom... First link didn't work. I've seen some of the research and am familiar with double peak. Some interesting stuff on Carrington Event on Wikipedia (did you write that I hope not?)... (I kid)... The interesting thing seems to be that the coronal ejections that were taking place happened to be going on for some time and were directed towards the earth and this cleared the way for a large CME to affect the earth more seriously than if the path had not been cleared. I'll listen more intently to some things that people discuss but the early stuff you bring in sounded quite alarmist about something that is very unlikely to have an effect on us. It is conceivable... but highly improbable. We work with NOAA. There are good people on the case. More to come if I hear more that is valuable to discuss my friend.

And we take away from the OP thrust about prepping and long distance backpacking.

I just hope that people who are concerned don't get spooked because they are reading about some serious sounding solar stuff that they never considered. Preparation is good. Too much worry is not good. In my humble opinion.

just Justin Whitson
(ArcturusBear)
Re: Re: on 10/11/2013 00:15:16 MDT Print View

The first link does work, double tap on it and highlight it all. At least it works for me.

I understand what you are saying, and please understand that, except when i'm trying to be humorous, i rarely ever speak lightly about such serious topics, and people don't need to believe the specifics to at least make a good, long term and more durable bug out bag. A lot of folks here already have a lot of good gear to work towards this.

I really doubt most folks here are going to take the intuitive stuff seriously, but what i was trying to do was to plant subconscious seeds so that IF people have the experience of mysteriously losing power, communications, etc and starts seeing red auroras even near the equator, that this thread will come up in their conscious minds and they will prepare accordingly--especially those folks in populous areas.

That's all. Otherwise, i can drop the subject.

Edited by ArcturusBear on 10/11/2013 00:30:03 MDT.

robert van putten
(Bawana) - F

Locale: Planet Bob
water is life! on 10/11/2013 11:13:46 MDT Print View

Water has been mentioned, and of course is one of the most important of subjects.
At home, I have a little solar powered well pump run by a single solar panel. When the sun shines it pushes water up a hill to my cistern, which gravity feeds my homestead.
The well pump is adjustable and pumps water at the same rate it flows into the well, so the well is never drawn down. This saved allot of coin because my well need not be drilled real far down to hold a reserve of water, and unlike the typical power hog well pump which takes a tremendous amount of energy to power, mine runs on one 120 watt solar panel.

You should have seen the look on the well drillers face when I told him to shut everything down when the hole was "just" 100 feet deep! They charge by the foot, ya know.

Heh, I have a spigot in the yard and one by the barn, no running water in our cottage!
But, as my Doc says "Running water is over rated anyway"
He'd rather I get the exercise hauling it in by the bucketful!

Anyway -

As backpackers we already are familiar with finding and if necessary treating, water.
It's something we do every trip! So again, we have another pretty good advantage over armchair preppers.

Iodine water treatment pills is what I'd pack in an emergency kit. I know this method has lost ground to filters and chlorine base chemical treatments, but consider this angle -

Fukushima protection!

That's right!

Wikipedia says this about it -

"Iodine treated drinking water, treated with tablets containing tetraglycine hydroperiodide, also reduces the uptake of radioactive iodine in human subjects to only 2% of the value it would otherwise be.[5] This could be an important factor worthy of consideration for treating water in a recent post nuclear event survival situation, where radioactive iodine ingestion is a concern for internal radiotoxicity. If the iodine has precipitated out of the solution, then the drinking water has less available iodine in solution. Also the amount of iodine in one tablet is not sufficient to block uptake. Tetraglycine hydroperiodide maintains its effectiveness indefinitely before the container is opened; although some manufacturers suggest not using the tablets more than three months after the container has initially been opened, the shelf life is in fact very long provided that the container is resealed immediately after each time it is opened"


Also note -

"Department of Medicine, Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma, Washington 98431.
Tetraglycine hydroperiodide tablets purify water by liberating 8 mg free iodine/tablet. The effects of ingesting four tablets daily for 3 months on thyroid size, function, and radioactive iodine uptake were studied prospectively in eight healthy volunteers. Serum inorganic iodide increased from 2.7 to approximately 100 micrograms/dL. Urinary iodide excretion rose 150-fold from a pretreatment mean of 0.276 to 40 mg/day. Radioactive iodine uptake was less than 2% after 7 days and remained below 2% in all subjects at 90 days. Mean serum T4 and T3 declined after 7 days. T4 remained below baseline, whereas T3 had recovered by the end of the treatment period. Serum TSH and the TSH response to TRH rose significantly after 7 days and remained elevated at 3 months. The average thyroid volume, determined by ultrasound, increased by 37%. Neither hyperthyroidism nor hypothyroidism was observed. The mean thyroid volume in seven subjects available for repeat determinations an average of 7.1 months after the study was not different from the baseline value. In normal subjects, a reversible TSH-dependent thyroid enlargement occurs in response to the iodine load from daily use of tetraglycine hydroperiodide water purification tablets."


http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7829615

Franco Darioli
(Franco) - M

Locale: Melbourne
Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/11/2013 14:31:56 MDT Print View

Justin,
You are perfectly correct , the solar thingo may or may not happen any time soon ,or later.
I am predicting that pink elephants may, or may not, be found hiding in the Amazonian jungle.
Prove me wrong.
But seriously, I think you should post your periodic warnings to coincide with the start of The Olympics , so that every four years we all tune in to your up-dates.

Edited by Franco on 10/11/2013 14:32:50 MDT.

David Gardner
(GardnerOutdoorLD) - M

Locale: Northern California
Re: Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/11/2013 14:40:56 MDT Print View

I'm adapting the front half of a tactical vest to attach to my Gossamer Gear G4. Will send more pictures as the project comes along.

vest

The SawVivor looks great. Need to get one.

Cold Steel makes a cutlass machete I'm going to check out, to see how it compares to a small hatchet for chopping and splitting. My current machete weighs less than 18 oz, lighter than any decent hatchet.

Dave U
(FamilyGuy) - F

Locale: Rockies
Re: Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/11/2013 14:41:14 MDT Print View

You Sir, are correct.

pinkl

Mark S
(gixer) - F - M
Prepper philosophy on 10/12/2013 11:32:00 MDT Print View

Amazes me the amount of time, money and energy some folks invest to "prepare" for an event that is extremely unlikely to occur in our life times and even if it does there is absolutely no evidence to suggest our more modern infrastructure would be as affected as in 1859 or even 1989.

Yet many preppers i know are dramatically overweight up to and beyond the point of morbidly obese and very few have any financial security behind them.

Seems to me that heart disease and job loss in these days are a far more real threat to our families.
Granted having 250 years worth of MRE's might well keep your family fed through financially tough times, doesn't stop debt collectors knocking on your door because rent or bills have not been paid.

Don't get me wrong, i'm all for preparing for imminent disasters, i live in a very active earthquake zone and have a bag filled with emergency kit, copies of important documents and any needed medication.
I have also carried out earthquake drills so we all know where to meet and stand when the next one occurs, i've also told family members and neighbours where will be in the hope that if the building does come down they'll have a better chance of finding us.

So i'm all for making logical preparations, it's just that in my experiences the hardest punches that life gives us are always the ones we never saw coming.
So going on and on about some event that might happen in our life times that might cause some damage that we can't really foresee just seems like a pointless waste of time, money and effort in my eyes.

Better to have some savings and varied investments, eat and live healthy, enjoy life and roll with the punches.

Katharina ....
(Kat_P) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Coast
Re: Prepper philosophy on 10/12/2013 11:47:56 MDT Print View

I agree that it is crucial to have a plan in place as to how and where meet family, and we all should do at least that. Water and meds, same thing.
Savings and varied investments, on the other hand, are not something everyone can just "do".

Dan Yeruski
(zelph) - MLife

Locale: www.bplite.com
Re: three days on 10/12/2013 13:36:45 MDT Print View

"Hurricane Katrina forced 800,000 people to live outside of their homes, most for quite some time."

That is correct and they had prior warning that Katrina was coming. They made arrangements with family and friends and organizations that could help them out till they could get permanently settled. Electronic bank transfers, credit cards etc got their money to them where ever they were.

Roger Dodger
(RogerDodger) - F

Locale: Wess Siide
Re: Prepper philosophy on 10/12/2013 19:10:33 MDT Print View

It's about a risk assessment matrix

severity of catastrophe (High , Medium, Low)
multiplied by
Probability of harm (High , Medium, Low)
multiplied by
Likelihood of event (High , Medium, Low)

Example:
Earthquake followed by Tsunami, then fires, looting and riots.
Severity=High (domino effect of everything messed up)
Probability of harm=Low (confident I can take care of myself)
Likelihood of event=High (statistically)

Figure out your personal score, and mitigate the risk accordingly.
To some, they mitigate the quake risk by moving to the East coast. but then they get hurricanes :P

In California, we have a bunch of these 100 year flood, 100 year quake, 100 year fires, but lately they have occurred on an annual cycle.

The optimist view: Very low probability that a major disaster will happen.
The statistician: it's been a quiet 99 years, you're F*d in the next year or ten.
The pessimist: Feel like there's a disaster every week.
The apathy guy: what happens, happens, gravity wins, can't win against angry nature.
The Paranoid: I read on the Internet that...
The Rambo: All I need is a bandanna, and I can survive any force of nature.
The disposable income guy: I'll buy duct tape, and 100 gallons of everything.
The keyboard commando: I've watched a lot of youtube videos, I can survive anything.
The ex-refugee: wrote tragic life events on the Internet that the Paranoid and Keyboard commandos read.

The prepared guy: there is a small chance that a disaster will happen, and an even smaller chance that my emergency gear will be accessible, and even smaller chance that I'll get lucky to survive by using it... but why not, I have extra gear and an extra pack. Chance favors the prepared.

Edited by RogerDodger on 10/12/2013 20:20:25 MDT.

David Gardner
(GardnerOutdoorLD) - M

Locale: Northern California
Re: Bug Out Bag / Prepper Setup / Survival-based UL kit and philosophy on 10/12/2013 19:29:58 MDT Print View

JJ Johnson at Reality Survival is running a giveaway contest, awarding some cool gear to contestants who do YouTube videos of their survival/disaster/prepper kits:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuYK1Rz8GH4

Richard May
(richardmay)

Locale: Costa Rica
Re: Prepper philosophy on 10/12/2013 20:09:34 MDT Print View

There's always Murphy's law: The best prepared are the ones who will die immediately.

Hence, I'll just scavenge the bodies and houses of the dead. This does mean my wife and child are more likely to survive so I make sure my kit well stocked.

:D

Delmar O'Donnell
(Bolster) - F

Locale: Between Jacinto & Gorgonio
Mark S's Approach on 10/13/2013 00:15:56 MDT Print View

I agree with Mark S's approach.

Put your main effort toward health issues.
Your second effort toward financial issues.
Time and energy left over? Get prepped.

Makes no sense to prep, and leave yourself wide open on the health & financial front. Preppers like to claim that the financial aspect will mean nothing after the crash, with "money worth nothing," but that's unlikely. Particularly if a good portion of your wealth is in useful items: land, houses, machines, food, defense, solar, etc.

And no, the best prepared won't be the first to die, that's silly.

Edited by Bolster on 10/13/2013 09:12:18 MDT.

Ian B.
(IDBLOOM) - MLife

Locale: PNW
Re: Mark S's Approach on 10/13/2013 00:23:50 MDT Print View

"Put your main effort toward health issues.
Your second effort toward financial issues.
Time and energy left over? Get prepped."

You can put a 72hr bag together for less than $300 and that can be assembled over a few months.

Edited by IDBLOOM on 10/13/2013 00:39:08 MDT.

Eric Blumensaadt
(Danepacker) - MLife

Locale: Mojave Desert
LTG (Long Term Gear) on 10/13/2013 00:57:15 MDT Print View

Just back from Greece, a country on the brink of financial disaster where "prepping" may become a necessity.

My idea of a Long Term Disaster ( more than one month) means I need to think of gear that will work in many situations without renewable supplies like batteries and synthetic fuel.

** It's just me and my wife so we'll take at least two of everything

Also I'm looking at gear that can be use for backpacking to a safe haven or driving to it (if possible).
I live in 'Vegas, Baby and in this desert bugging out of town will rapidly become necessary. Going east and north seems the best direction. Namely Utah, Montana, or Wyoming.

But for a long term bug out this is my short list. It all fits into a RAV 4 sport ute, I hope.

STOVE> Caldera Cone Tri Ti or Sidewinder with a woodburning Inferno insert, Swedish fire starting stick & steel (Also a multi liquid fuel stove B/C some small amounts of liquid fuel will be available for a long time, like years.)

COOKSET> aluminum 1 or 1.5 L. pot & lid, aluminum skillet. small nylon spatula, Lexan knife, fork and spoon for each of us, plastic cups with measuring lines, insulated mugs, cozys, etc.

SLEEP SYSTEM> a mix of down and synthetic bags, two Thermarest mattresses

TENT> Tarptent Scarp 2 W/ winter inner & cross pole

PACKS> REI Cruise UL 60 and a modded Camelbak pack

CLOTHES> Durable, synthetic, both warm and cold weather including GTX parkas and pants

FIREARMS> (yes, some to trade for food, etc.)
1. Ruger 96/22 lever gun (scoped) .22 magnum, 500 rounds of ammo
2. two 9mm pistols, 200 rounds of 9mm
3. .300 Win mag. (two scoped rifles), 200 rounds
4. .308 lever action rifle, 100 rounds
5. Ruger 10/22 .22 LR, 500 rounds

There is more bon the list for water treatmant and medical as well as basic tools like a folding military shovel, folding saw, wrenches, pliers and DUCT TAPE!

Sort of a car-camp/backpack list that is always ready to go.

Edited by Danepacker on 10/13/2013 09:39:34 MDT.