"I'm always cold so a warm meal should be worth the weight?"
Aaron, I've read your past accounts with great interest, so I know you know what you're doing, but, at the risk of sounding insulting, I think you're verging on the the realm of "stupid light".
For one, I didn't see a thermal layer, like an R1, on your list. Did I miss something? Also, a 10oz down vest is also key, especially for someone who gets cold. Depending on your direction and your planned bivies, night time temps will definitely start to dip below freezing.
A second instance is that M90 bivy isn't going to do you any good. For another 9oz (12oz total), you could take along a proper 6x8 silnylon tarp. If you don't want to take stakes, then you could use rocks.
A third example is the lack of rain protection. While I like the Frog Togs poncho, rain gear can be as simple as a large garbage bag.
Four, I hate air mattresses for two reasons: simplicity & lack of lightning protection.
The 4th point ties into the bivy/tarp question & (lack of) rain gear. You seem pretty nonchalant about hanging out under a tree, but that is perhaps the most dangerous place to be in the event of a T-storm.
I think you're really underestimating the risk of inclement weather, even in Sept. If the afternoon storms don't get you, a good monsoon flow can clean your clock.
Assume you get stuck during a T-storm somewhere "south of Forester". What are going to do? With proper equipment, perhaps weighing no more than 16oz more, you could:
- lay out a CCF pad & assume "the position" (no, not that position - the anti-lightning squat) amongst the trees, but definitely NOT next to a trunk - more out amongst the general canopy
- put on your R1 and/or down vest (remember, you're not going to be moving, so people can get hypothermia)
- put on your garbage bag and/or poncho
The above also applies to a storm developing overnight - if you got wet/cold and you could't move due to lightning, your trip is gonna be over pretty soon.