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Another Dry Winter
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Locale: South West US
Another Dry Winter on 10/19/2012 15:36:25 MDT Print View

This from NOAA via adventure-journal:

"The upcoming winter is likely to be a mild and dry one for the West and the Upper Midwest, while parts of the Southeast may see cooler and wetter than average conditions, according to the official U.S. winter outlook issued yesterday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."


Rex Sanders
(Rex) - M

Locale: Central California Coast
Dry winter - depends on where you are... on 10/20/2012 00:48:14 MDT Print View

Here's the official NOAA news release:

Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook

Here's the money quote:

“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”

Meaning they have even less confidence than usual in this years outlook.

Here's the temperature outlook:
NOAA Winter Outlook, Temperature

Here's the precipitation outlook:
NOAA Winter Outlook, Precipitation

Rex Sanders
(Rex) - M

Locale: Central California Coast
Dry-warm combination = drought on 10/22/2012 18:08:30 MDT Print View

Recent studies showed that the Rocky Mountain drought is a combination of low precipitation and high temperatures. The low precip is obvious, but the high temps cause higher evaporation and evapotranspiration by plants, reducing ground water and river flows even more.

If you look at the overlap between dry and warm in these winter outlooks, seems like drought for eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, northern Nevada, northwestern Utah, and all of Idaho.

But I am not a climate forecaster, and don't play one on TV.

[Edit: Make that northWESTERN Utah.]

Edited by Rex on 10/22/2012 22:53:07 MDT.