Basically, regardless of anything else, if your tarp temperature falls below the dew point, you will get condensation on it.
Regardless of your breathing, or the wind, or closed-in, or whatever.
If that tarp temperature is below dew point, it will be wet from the moisture in the air condensing on it. That's all there is to it.
The key is to have the tarp no colder than the surrounding air, and be in the least humid location you can readily set up camp in.
Why does the tarp get colder than the air around it?
Because if you set up the tarp in the open, it "sees" the sky and universe as a giant heat-sink, and it actually gives up its heat and cools. You can see examples of this with solar cookers. If you place an item in a solar cooker in the night time and point it at the clear open sky, the solar cooker works in reverse as a cooler, and by morning the item in there is actually up to 10-20 degrees cooler than the surrounding air.
That's what is cooling your tarp off.
Park it under the trees, where the leaves are blocking the direct path to the sky, and it won't cool off as much, and might get less condensation on it.
Being in low locations near water is always going to be more humid than higher locations further from the water. When you have more water in the air, you get more amounts of water condensing on things than if it was less humid.
Use higher locations away from water if possible.
In the end, you are battling a natural phenomenon of water and temp behavior. You will not conquer it with a single wall shelter or tarp. But you can mitigate it to some degree.
It happens with a double-wall shelter too, but the water condenses inside the outer wall, and the inner wall is heated more by your bodies, so it's not as cold, and won't condense as much water on it.