I always figure that % rain forecast is an estimate of how much of the time it will be raining. So I take a 60% forecast to mean it will be raining 60% of the day. Then again, living in NZ which bears many similarities to the PNW (though even less predictable) I never trust the forecast even if the chance is 0%. The minimum I take, even on a day hike, is a cuben poncho that can also serve as a ground cloth or shelter if I get stuck out overnight. This can happen even if it's not raining where I am due to rain higher up suddenly making a river unfordable. I also plan for situations such as injury that may change even the best laid plans for a day hike. It really comes down to how risk-averse you are, and the likely conditions you hike in. It's just a personal choice.

I have one but I am relegating it more to the winter since we have had 50% of the rain we usually get this year. I am liking the windshirt and umbrella combo thing paired with a trash bag rain skirt. I have been looking for something to prop up a bug netting bivy with and can use the umbrella. Just have to find a good bug netting bivy now. Can always take a rain poncho/tarp and use that also if need be. Options. I like my rain jacket but I have never found one I loved.

I still think the Packa is one of the best ventilated rain parkas going due to its being open on the bottom area of your pack.

I'll bet that when his patent expires you'll see "mainstream" makers like REI selling Packa-like parkas.

Yes I always carry rain jacket with me since it always helps in some way or the other..........

in the summers here in PA i don't. if the trip forecast looks like good weather i will just bring a windshirt. rainstorms during the day are a welcomed shower. i simply just walk in my t shirt and enjoy the cleaning and refreshing. i keep the windshirt in my pack for camp warmth, as others have mentioned... fall, winter, spring however the rain jacket comes with me, begrudgingly...

Yes, I always carry my goretex rain parka. Living in New England the old saying goes "If you don't like the weather, just wait a minute." It is so true. I can head out for a short hike with the sun shining and 30 minutes later it's pouring rain or snowing.

Growing up hiking and camping in the White Mountains of NH, I was always taught to prepare for the worst weather you can imagine. My rain parka is always in/on my pack and I've never regretted carrying it.

wait- I thought that was a Montana saying :)

We said that in Michigan all the time. Now I hear it in Oregon...

My rain jacket gets more use than most items in my pack, if it isn't raining I wear it for a bit of extra warmth around camp or as a wind breaker.

I usually watch what the forecasters say will happen with the weather, then pack my pack for the exact opposite because they either have the worst luck in determining weather or the science behind it is complete trash. :)

Just kidding, I suppose it is better now than it was ten years ago, but it is still 60/40 at best. I always have my golite poncho/tarp. I also have my hammock tarp. So what I usually do now is get to my camping spot, setup camp and if it is going to rain, I will add my poncho /tarp to the edge of my hammock tarp to create a vestibule of sorts and chill down there til it stops. I rarely ever put it on unless I am still hiking and don't want my gear to get wet.

If there's one thing people are universally bad at, it's predicting the future. Weatherman included.

Even in Southern AZ, I always take a rain jacket or poncho. Just in the past year I have been rained/snowed on and rained/hailed on when the forecast showed a 0% chance of rain for the next 10 days! That said, those are really the only two times I've had to use my rain gear in the last year...

Nope.

Depends on the trip for me.

If you always carry a rain jacket, do you also always carry rain pants?

I wonder what the stats are for weather pattern change and instability in light of global warming? Could it be that the computer models used for forecasting need some adaptation, or perhaps it is more chaotic?
That should make you take your rain gear!

By the way, chance of rain refers to the percent of the area that's expected to receive rain, as I understand it. My wife and I had an argument about this a while back, she won so it stuck in my brain.

If there's any chance of rain it will rain... somewhere, unless the weatherman screws up. Which never happens of course :)

Edited by JacobD on 06/26/2012 09:56:01 MDT.

"By the way, chance of rain refers to the percent of the area that's expected to receive rain, as I understand it."

Close: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop

Chance of rain = (probability that it will rain somewhere) x (percent of area expected to receive rain, if it occurs at all)

If there is a 40 percent chance of rain, then "the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area."



"I wonder what the stats are for weather pattern change and instability in light of global warming? Could it be that the computer models used for forecasting need some adaptation, or perhaps it is more chaotic?"

I think one of the primary reasons weather forecasts may be inaccurate is due to a lack of data. If they could have weather instruments every 100 yards that supply real-time updates and if they had massive computing power, I think their predictions would be more accurate. Also, if any one is like me, they don't remember all the times the forecasters were right - just the times they were wrong.