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I live in Knoxville, Tennessee, about an hour or so west of the Smokies. Like some other's have said, you will get a LOT of variance in weather around here especially in the winters. For example, last weekend I did a short trip on the AT in the Smokies (I'm actually the one that had the aqua mira explode) and it got down to 7 degrees at night at around 5500 feet. However, the lows for the next 4 nights from now in that same shelter are 38, 43, 34, 26 (source: http://web.eecs.utk.edu/~dunigan/at/m.php?wpt=RussellFi). It dumped 6 inches of fresh snow last Saturday up high, but on Friday the day before there was no snow at all. I'd say there's probably no snow at all in the Smokies right now either. BUT, this has been one of the most mild winters in the last 20 years or so (from what I've heard). 2 winters ago (a bad winter) I went to Max Patch, NC in mid march (about 15 miles north of Davenport Gap on the AT) and there was knee high snow still left on Bluff Mtn. Last year I stayed in Mollies Ridge Shelter in the Smokies the first week of February and slept in a 45 degree bag. Last weekend, Mt. Leconte in the Smokies had wind chills of -20. The point is, if next year has a bad winter you could see single digit temps and 2 feet of snow, or if its a mild winter you could see nightly lows in the mid 30s and no snow. I will say, I think that snow only hangs around out here for extended periods above 4500 feet or so (someone correct me on that if I'm wrong) which would mostly only be when you're on the AT in the Smokies for the trip you're planning (I don't know much about the other 2 trails youre including in the loop). Either way, don't let it scare you off, winter weather and snow accumulations here are NOTHING compared to what you'd see out west in the winters. Also, it depends on what you're calling "winter." For two years in a row now, i've gone to the Smokies on Thanksgiving day and it's been in the 70s. Jan/Feb get cold. March warms up but we usually get atleast one good snow up high mixed in with the warm weather in march. Hope some of that helps!
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