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A point of reference may be mildly useful... The Adirondack Mountain Club runs a winter "mountaineering" school every winter. Its gear requirements call for bags rated to -20F. One of the reasons for this, no doubt, is that the course has fixed dates and such a rating is deliberately conservative to deal with both the worst possible conditions and the fact that some course participants are inexperienced.
That said, you have the advantage of the NOAA, TWC, and other weather forecast information. So you can avoid worst case situations and go out in conditions that your gear supports. IMHO a genuine 0 degree bag, proper layering, and good ground insulation should do the trick nicely 90% of the time when out for a long weekend in cold and dry conditions with suitable shelter. And, of course, there are VBLs, whose afficianados can be expected to post replies!
Of course, the best thing is for you to go out there and answer your own question with the Lithium (and a warmer pad system since you know what you have is inadequate).
Edited by sgaioni on 12/02/2011 05:34:24 MST.
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