Looks like the weather forecast may have taken a turn for the worse.

Could be setting up for near perfect hypothermia weather.

1. bring proper clothing

2. bring plenty of food to keep the inner fires stoked, including maybe some emergency simple carbs.

3. consider not running alone, especially the last half.

Great.

Forecast I saw for Saturday is 47-21 degrees with rain which could potentially make the North Kaibab pretty dangerous if it's below freezing and getting icy.

Potential hypothermia weather is right. If you can't keep moving in conditions like this, things will be ugly.

as far as ice on the trail,
the final 1,500 ft (2 miles) up to NK trailhead is not exposed. but below that are some interesting drop offs.

Edited by asandh on 04/09/2012 09:03:07 MDT.

N. Kaibab will be at noon, ice conditions are less likely there I would think. i would be more concerned with any late evening ascents on the S. kaibab or BA where it will get cold fast in the evening and potentially ice over. Microspikes make alot of sense to me.

Like a perfect storm.

That hotel or lodge is sounding kind of pleasant now. Who would have thought? Typically the problem is dealing with heat, not hypothermic conditions.

What additional items will you guys be packing?

This should be interesting. I'm really hoping the weather turns for the best.

my standard clothing for this :
knit hat, possibly my balaclava
light weight gloves
North Face Triumph pullover shell
ultra light rain pants (optional last minute decision)
Patagonia nano puff
Marmot mid weight under shirt (equal to Pat. Cap 3 but lighter weight)
light weight poly inner shirt (long sleeve)
Pat. cap 2 long johns (optional heavier pants if its windy)
shorts over pants
standard footwear, injinji socks, shoes

If these conditions hold I'll be additionally packing:
Montbell Thermawrap Jacket
ArcTeryx hardshell (forget which model, it's GTX Paclite, top and bottom)
Rain Mitts
Microspikes
Patagonia Cap 1 LS top and bottoms

Craig, good call on the glove shells, adding that. I'll be bringing what I need to pretty much mirror Art and Craig with the addition of three other items, a mylar bivy, a small pack towel, and a 9-hour candle. Call me chicken.

the thing about the mylar bivy is ... I like to think I would make the smart decision and turn around early rather than try to gut it out and get myself into trouble.
but one never knows.

Art, i agree, I too hope to be smart enough to know when a bail out is necessary.

But for conditions like this i tend to include gear in case bailing out is not possible. Especially since in this case, bailing out means climbing back to 7000' with possible washed out, icy, exposed trail.

That's just me though.

I plan on taking my normal hiking/running setup, long hiking pants, shorts, LS Cap 1, wind shirt, gloves, visor, warm hat and down jacket. I may also take rain jacket and pants but I would likely sweat more in them than any precip would wet it out.

As far as microspikes, it would seem that the canyon rock is rather warm right now and that any snow that would be falling would be soft. Unless there is "soft ice" that microspikes could grip or consolidated and hard snow I can't see them helping.

I will take a bit of extra food.

Greg agree about the spikes.

and I tend to sweat a lot in a rain suit too, but for me its more to hold in warmth rather than keep me dry, sort of a travelling emergency bivy.

accuweather still showing cool (high 48), but they no longer show freezing rain- of course the show precip for Sun so that could easily be there on Sat

I'm bringing my tights, micropuff, OR Helium rain jacket-can't bring my spikes as I'm afraid TSA will snag them :( maybe I should bring my studded shoes ???

if it's simply cool and cloudy, we'll be golden- if it's raining, less golden :)

Getting alot out of this exchange, good stuff.

So do you guys think I should leave my skorts behind?

I've already had to nix my fishnet tanktop, not too happy about that.

I don't know, but I am kind of disappointed that I may not be wearing my fishnets (Salomon Exo Slab shorts and calf sleeves).

With the variety of weather outlooks from "cloudy" all the way to "50% chance of showers" I am just going to do my best to be prepared. Gear options that I am bringing on account of the weather are Cap3 l/s, a rain shell, thermal tights, space blanket and a whistle.

Im ready for anything! As I live here, and have been running here the last year almost every day, both along the rim, as well as to the bottom of the canyon every month, even in winter, snow and ice included, I run no matter what the conditions. All winter I had to go through mud, sleet, water, freezing temps, 2ft deep snow, ice, and frozen puddles! And thats just my daily, after-work "easy" 6 mile abyss trail. So I have all types of running clothes for all the weathers we get here :) I got some extra beenies n gloves if any of you forget yours.
I havent offered ya guys any advice, cause ya seem to have a handle on it...just be prepared for anything , it looks like you all will be. BTW, even in winter, i never needed micro-spikes, my YakTrak pros worked fine, ok, see ya friday

Edited by everyday on 04/09/2012 18:24:00 MDT.

After some changes in my family's plan to do a road trip from Colorado, I'm now looking to fly into PHX solo on Friday. Is anyone else flying into the airport that day with spare room in their car? I will be flying standby, arriving either at 10am or 1130am. Another option is that I could take bus/light rail combinations to exit the airport to get to a more convenient location to be picked up. This could get me away from the airport and potentially closer to an interstate from noon to 1:00. I'm pretty sure that it goes without sayin' that I'm more than willing to make a gas pitch. Any takers?

Edited by vaporjourney on 04/09/2012 22:03:47 MDT.

I'm out packing and geeking on gear for this thing....So here's my current gear thinking for the crappy conditions, might change depending on what we see on Saturday:

Worn:
Synthetic T
Rab Boreas
Asics shorts
Patagonia Cap1 tights
socks
Inov-8 Roclite 295 (tend to be better for sloppy conditions than my MT110s)
Timex Ironman
ArcTeryx Phaser Toque beanie


Hard Goods Carried:
Black Diamond BBEE pack (loving this sleek little guy!)
First Aid / leukotape / AM pre-mixed drops in mini dropper
Petzl Zipka +2
Platypus 2L (though I'll only carry 1L in it so it stays flatter in the pack)
2x 24oz handheld bottles
Kahtoola Microspikes
Heat Sheets emergency blanket



Soft Goods Carried:
ArcTeryx hardshell, top and bottom (I forget the model...Alpha Gamma AR super-duper something...it's GTX Paclite, pretty lightweight for a hardshell)
Montbell Thermawrap jacket
liner gloves w/ homemade silnylon rain mitts


Everything Packed:
Shell pants are folded behind the bladder, everything else in stuffsacks. I'm amazed it all fits so well. This pack has great proportions and rides well loaded. STill plenty of room for Perpetuem, Snickers, and gels.
Dog will be pulling me in a custom cuben harness system. She gives me a ~2 min/mile advantage. Adan has seen it at work; 14 pounds but she thinks she's a sled dog.

Dude, I got my eyes on your gears right now. Feeling totally inadequate, I'm gonna look like a poser compared to this. Looking good. Are the pant shells waterproof or not totally? Will you be bringing the seal skins or did those not make the cut after our Baldy wet camp last week? If I end up having to pack a puffy, driducks and spikes then I may have to switch to the Golite Ion for more space. Not ideal but what the hell, rookies gotta look like rookies for a while.

Let's get some.