This weather link may help you:
My last few outings I haven't used the down coat, temps were about 40 in the morning but it does warm up fast if you can find a site with good early morning sun exposure, a running t-shirt, wool hoodie, windshirt, and fleece hat have been enough for me in the morning. You may want to take the Cap 4 for the mornings, it seemed to me you just had the railriders shirt and Dri Ducks? which isn't much. I wouldn't take the insulated pants either.
Have a good trip.