Alec-I lived in Minnesota for 14 years. During that period it was not uncommon to get a week straight of January night time wind chill temps in the -30 range. I will assume that will be your worst case weather scenario to plan for.
It is highly unlikely that you will have to deal with rain and most DWR finishes should be adequate for the snow. For insulation thickness estimates I will use the average of 28 of the most common high loft insulations used in clothing and sleeping bags. Polarguard 3D / Delta are at the low end of the efficiency spectrum; Climashield XP / Exceloft are in the middle, and Primaloft One / 800 fill goose down are at the top. From the middle values I quote there is a variance of about 29% either way depending on materials, their water content, and their loft.
While running, you will generate at least 7 METS of energy. At this pace and my estimated worse case temps, you will only need about .34” of highly breathable insulation on your body. Close fitting Polartec Powerstrecth or Powerdry long underwear, 300 weight fleece insulation, and a wind shirt/pants should be close to optimum (.34”) for torso insulation by ventilating on climbs.
When cooking or resting, you will only generate ~ 2 METs. This will require approximately 1.2” - .34” (layer 1) = .86 (layer 2) of incremental torso insulation. Your MH Chugach 3D pants (2.7 oz/yd2) would only provide only .6” of the needed incremental leg loft. The matching jacket increment would be the same for the upper torso. If you decide to use the MH Chugach combination and the temp is near -30 windchill, you will probably have to generate some additional heat by isometrics to stay warm. Note that you would also need to augment the layer three value by what you didn't wear for layer two.
When sleeping, you will generate ~.8 METs. This will require wearing your layer 1 and layer 2 clothes plus supplementing them with a bivy, winter pad, and a quilt / bag (layer 3). Layer 3 needs to provide 3’ - .86” (layer 2) - .34” (layer 1) = 1.8”. I recommend a synthetic bag or quilt for this layer (optimally Primaloft Sport) so that moisture from your clothing can be effectively dried out while sleeping. If down was used, the dew point would occur in the down layer causing it to loose its insulation value.