is this for hiking, just standing around? Its surprising how little you need to keep warm when you are hiking.
I'd recommend trying everything out, peoples metabolisms vary significantly.
I'd skip the rain jacket if you are hiking, I work up a sweat even at low temperatures, and I try to never hike in a rain jacket.
I would also thinkt hat the railriders shirt wouldn't provide much warmth, and at those temperatures you wouldn't have any bugs, and you'll be wearing something over it so no need for sun protection. You might be able to find something warmer for the same weight.
Also, having a pair of warm gloves and a hat will be key. When your hands get cold you can either layer something on your torso or on your hands, gloves or mittenswill weigh less and keep them warmer than an additional torso layer.