A big, cold storm is due this weekend so I'd expect an accumulation of new snow next week. I don't know the elevation where you're headed, but you'd be wise to plan for the teens overnight, perhaps lower if you're headed high. Check the forecast carefully when finalizing your list and before heading out.
Your clothing list seems reasonable, although I don't see a down jacket and I'd consider adding one. There may be some redundency with all the hats. Unless rain is predicted I'd focus on cold weather gear over raingear, as snow will be more likely than rain unless we get a storm from the tropics (which does happen from time to time). "Typical" Sierra fall weather is clear and mild during the day, very cold overnight. It can also be windy, plunging the effective temperatures and making wind gear very desirable.
Your bag seems like a good match for the season and I'd pair it with a warm pad. What shelter are you considering?