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I hiked the JMT two years ago in July and it rained every day. Every day. There was a typhon or something in the gulf of mexico and we had these long rain storms. Mostly it would come and go but I definently used by Packa. I poncho would work fine too. It's really nice to have a small tarp like the poncho to string up when you stop for lunch. I say go with some type of sil nylon as it mostly willl sit in your pack, but if you need it you will be so sorry. Oh, also ,if you don't use trecking poles you could take an umbrella. I use poles so this wont work. DONT HIKE THE JMT WITHOUT SOME RAIN GEAR
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