If you live in the western US, and it's not on your radar, it'll be soon. I saw a dispatch calling for snow to be measured in the "tens of feet" in the Sierra, LA to get a season's worth of rainfall in five days, 200mph winds and a "2-3 week period of weather not seen in memory". The jetstream is "about as strong as it gets on earth". Anyone else going out in this?! I'm working, so I have no choice. I'll be on the Mojave/Colorado Plateau interface for eight days. I'm getting pretty scared! That report (sent to disaster preparedness groups) was just full of doom and gloom.

Does that mean tons of rain in southern Cal? I've got 2 leaks on my roof. :(

More on that: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=vef&img=2

Bad link there Cola. Does not look so bad for up here. No special warnings, up to 45mph gusts. The norm for this time of year here.

Edited by kthompson on 01/16/2010 08:01:03 MST.

Yep: looks like the weather service took down that graphic. From what I saw the heavy moisture is more south and east across the southern Sierra, southern Utah, AZ. Might be a good time to plan a cross country ski out to the north rim

Hope those guys planning a South Central Utah trip are up to date on this if the timing coincides ( and this looks to be arriving in waves over quite a long time period )

Edited by obxcola on 01/16/2010 09:06:48 MST.

[i][/i]
I've been hearing 20" of rain in our mountains.

Hopefully this fills our reservoirs. Too bad one of them won't benefit due to construction.

I know we need the rain here, but I'm kind of bummed since any snow means my PCT will be that much harder...although I guess it's good for finding water sources. I'll try to take solace in that, but I'd much rather have some spring rain storms in socal.

We have the first El Nino condition in several years and it may be strong enough to break our four-year drought cycle (if it generates a multi-week series of wet storms). It's too bad we tend to get such drought-buster systems in such a dramatic form =:-0

Big winter storms often act in surprising ways and anybody headed out would be prudent to prepare for extreme conditions and have equipment and supplies and especially the skills to hunker down for perhaps days. Obviously the avalanche conditions will be as extreme as can be in the high country.

Here's NOAA's Saturday a.m. alert for northern and central California:

"A VERY STRONG JET STREAM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND
WILL RESULT IN WETTER AND WINDIER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A STRONGER AND WETTER STORM WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE
VALLEY AND HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE RAIN IN
THE VALLEY AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO
5500 FEET ARE EXPECTED AND MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER...EXTENDING INTO
THE UPPER FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY COULD REACH 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE VALLEY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW AROUND THE 5000 FOOT ELEVATION...AND 10 FEET
OR MORE OVER THE HIGHER SIERRA NEVADA BY NEXT FRIDAY. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE MAJOR
PASSES.

As a footnote, my greatest fear if headed for the backcountry would be if the storm turned warm unexpectedly (which happens when the jetstream dips south and pulls in tropical moisture) and dumps a lot of rain on a lot of new snow. My worst backcountry experience was when this happened to me once in the Cascades.

--Rick

Here's the latest for the central southern Sierra Nevada. Accumulations to ten feet? Time to hit Blockbuster and pull up a couch.

Rick

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
632 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

CAZ096-097-162330-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.A.0002.100118T0600Z-100119T1200Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHAVER LAKE...YOSEMITE VALLEY...CAMP NELSON...GIANT FOREST...JOHNSONDALE...LODGEPOLE

632 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET MONDAY...AND NEAR 5500 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW AMOUNTS: TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW 7000 FEET DEPENDING ON THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. STRONG WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE CREST WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* MAIN IMPACT: EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE OR WORK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...YOU MAY BE UNABLE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...OR YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE TO A LOWER ELEVATION.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION STORM...AND IT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL PAST MONDAY NIGHT...IN FACT POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WILL LOWER AS WELL...AND COULD BE NEAR 4500 FEET BY THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 5000 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. IF YOU PLAN ON RIDING THE STORM OUT...YOU WILL NEED AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS WORTH OF WATER AND FOOD. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

An update: At 5000' in central Arizona, last year was dry. We received about 11" of precipitation for the year. Last week, we also received about 11" of precipitation.

Looks like I'll be stuck in Tulsa this weekend.

I'm back from the field and where I was, the storm wasn't a whole lot. Four days of snow and rain, never more than three inches on the ground.

January 25. Morning on the east side of Sierra Nevada above Lone Pine. Langley, Whitney, etc. Lots of snow.

Edited by DaveT on 01/27/2010 15:43:09 MST.

For Joe Clement, weatherbound in Tulsa:
"I spent almost a week in Amarillo, one afternoon."
Not originally said by me, but I like it.