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I'll stand with Hendrik on this one ...
It's no accident that there's a town named "Finland" in MN. When visiting Hendrik's homeland 4 years ago I was advised "You'll love Suomi ... it's just like northern MN." That advice was correct (on both counts).
So here's one winter tarp/bivy data point from northern WI (just like MN except for the football teams they follow).
Weather forecast was an inch or two of snow and temps about 15F (-9C), nearly calm winds.
Started out that way but ended up -13F (-25C), 20-25MPH winds (32-40kph) and 6 inches (15cm) snow. Exposed conditions (on a lake 100 yards away) were pretty ugly.
Shelter: 5x8 tarp pitched REALLY low and MYOG bivy zipped closed except around my face, 30*F sleeping bag (Marmot Arroyo) under synthetic quilts (8oz/yd^2 insulation), ridgerest and another 1/2 inch CCF pad. Clothing was vapor barrier socks under wool socks and SD Down booties, light weight synthetic base layer top&bottom, nylon pants and shirt, 3oz/yd^2 PL1 insulated pants, 200wt fleece jacket and hooded nylon windshell, smartwool balaclava, light wt gloves.
Sleeping site was in low area with a small clump of Balsam Fir trees in a mostly hardwood forest. I didn't notice the wind at all when in bed. I did need to thump the tarp periodically to keep the snow from accumulating but I wake hourly to roll over when on CCF pads anyway so that was mainly just an inconvenience. D*mn cold emerging from that cocoon in the morning but I was warm (not just OK) all night. My only regret is not insisting that the trip photographer take my picture while still in it.
Granted, that's not a lot of snow and not very extreme winds, mine is just one data point and there are many many places where that'd be a dangerously inadequate shelter. But I suspect it's very much like what Hendrik is likely to encounter.
Site selection was a key to success that night ... I smiled and nodded agreement when Fritz Handel named "a large spruce tree" as his favorite shelter in the interview Hendrik recently posted ... indeed, the night previous to the one above was spent under just such a tree without the tarp.
Edited by jcolten on 11/23/2009 04:14:56 MST.
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