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Throwing in my two cents, after having just finished a long hike with lots of rain...
I've been using a 9.5 x 7 foot rectangular silnylon tarp for years (12 oz), but rarely sleep out in the rain with it, since shelters are so easy to come by in the Northeast. I've been using a polycryo groundcloth and no bivy, but for my latest trip, where I knew I would have very few shelters available, I decided to try a bivy. I got the MLD superlite, and it's a nice piece of gear. After three nights using the tarp/bivy combo, I decided to switch out the bivy for the polycryo again.
In those three nights that I used the bivy, there was one wicked cold night with no rain, one wicked cold night with some rain and snow, and one night with a tremendous thunderstorm. Each night, my quilt was dry on the top, and had some amount of condensation dampness on the bottom. I didn't like the condensation, so I decided to go without the bivy for the rest of the trip, and I stayed perfectly dry despite several more nights of rain.
I have no experience tenting/tarping out west, though, so I'm not sure how different that would be. I've only had windy/rainy conditions in my tarp a few times, and I did get a little splashing on my face which made sleeping less comfortable, but not enough to really wet my quilt. Also, my tarp seems quite a bit bigger than the MLD Grace tarp that my friend was using, so maybe that has something to do with it.
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