Thanks for the weather report. 18F -- can handle it. Can handle snow too :) Up to a point. Post-holing with a HEAVY pack through 1-2 metres of soggy snow -- possible scenario but gather not likely -- for any great distance alone would be very difficult for me. Wonder what they are seeing in terms of high temps. Supposed to be clear a week out -- which often means cold. Navigation skills can ALWAYS be better -- much better with my GPS than map/compass -- LOL.
BUT what really did this in for me is RE-SUPPLY -- 30+ pounds of consumables??? If you are planning 14 days in winter -- can you really pare that down much? I'm vegan so hunting and fishing aren't something I'd plan for or have a clue how to go about. Furthermore, I simply need warmer stuff than most (sub 0F bag, etc etc.) 50 lbs is getting very close to HALF my bodyweight!!! I've carried this amount but not over 210 miles of fairly high mileage days. (Yeah, I know it shrinks as the days pass but still A LOT, IMO!)
If MTR were open for packages, I would do it in a second! As for packers, sounds like they need a time and place for delivery. Many reports of unreliable outfits -- get to the top of a pass and turned back by a ranger because they don't have their "animal permit". Sounds pretty iffy for someone winging it in cold weather. Yes, there are other resupply options -- for a bit more planning and a bit more money -- but not worth the effort, IMO at this point.
I'm one to wing it! Much of The Alps (the access and hut systems) are perfect for me in this respect!!! On foot or ski. Throw on a lightish pack, pick up a map and head out for a few weeks.
If I don't think success is likely, then I'll find another challenge. Already making another plan for this month. :) Though a few Sierra types are encouraging my not to abandon JMT…October is the best month! No chance in making it to VVR and a box before it closes at this point. I'm NOT going to carry that MONSTER pack described above. :)