David, at first I thought it'd be warm enough; he did mention the Flash jacket, hooded, puffy. For lows around freezing I'll use a 260-ish weight wool and a down vest or down jacket. But Dan doesn't have that midlayer, either. Dunno. The Flash packs a reasonable amount of warmth for the weight. For another ounce the Flight would add more loft but lose the hood... A midlayer might be a good thing to (gulp!) add? Depends on how much you're pushing the seasons, though.
Dan, one other thing I'm looking at would set you back maybe 45 bucks... your cookset weighs 9.4 ounces. Pot, lid, lifter. Pretty heavy for a 1L setup. Evernew 0.9L short is 4.1 ounces unaltered... ie w/lid and handles, for about the same volume. If you switch to a bike spoke bail you can cut another 1/2 ounce (haven't decided if it's worth keeping that way). Shedding the lid saves you another ounce or so, but I've found that the stock lid is far less fuss than foil.