I, like Thom, prefer effort over effort over luck. I also think that some sort of contribution to the community would be great. As a "mostly lurker, sometimes poster" I appreciate all the contributions from people on the forums and would like to see someone rewarded for their efforts.
Also have to keep in mind that it is an introductory course that is in MT so there is some other logistics/costs that the winner would have to work out. I would like to see it go to someone that is not only deserving, but one who would actually be able to go and get the most out of it.
I would like to see an essay contest of some kind where the essays are posted and then voted on by the BPL community. Would have to be a pretty short turn around time, but could enrich the community and give a deserving individual and fantastic adventure.