>Alan was lucky this time and I hope his luck holds out. I would rather trust my life to a more reasonable gear list and not to luck.
I think that's a bit dramatic. Given the possible weather conditions, the geographic situation of his hike, his gear, and his experience, I just don't see any reasonable scenario where Alan wouldn't have made it out alive.
If something had gone wrong would he have been (X)tremely uncomfortable, or forced to ditch early? Sure. But dead? No.
There's no more damning criticism you can make of an experienced hiker than to say to they're surviving on luck, and Alan's no neophyte.