How about a combination? I am pretty happy with my combination of a Patagonia Micropuff hooded jacket with Polarguard insulation and a loft of 0.6" This piece is sized with plenty of room to layer a puffy underneath. Then I add a down vest, Montbell Alpine vest, underneath. This is a 1.5-2" loft with baffles (not the very thin Alpine light).
I like this combination because it puts the synthetic jacket on the outside which can be a little wet while protecting the down vest. I'm not willing to wear just a thick, down jacket because I'm afraid of getting it wet but, for very little weight and volume, the down vest adds a whole lot to the combination.
With good gloves and a beanie/balaclava, this should take you well below freezing in camp. YMMV