The Carbon Flame War
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Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: Good chance of Aurorae tomorrow night on 08/02/2010 16:45:21 MDT Print View

Oh, I see the solar flare is gonna affect the Southern Hemisphere too :) I'll be on top of the Port Hills tonight and see if there's any action to the south.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Good chance of Aurorae tomorrow night on 08/03/2010 15:55:30 MDT Print View

Too cloudy here to see anything :-(

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: Re: Re: Good chance of Aurorae tomorrow night on 08/03/2010 17:03:54 MDT Print View

Too cloudy here too :(

Nate Meinzer
(Rezniem) - F

Locale: San Francisco
The Carbon Flame War on 08/03/2010 17:24:11 MDT Print View

Well, it was a hard decision, but after a lot of thought, I'm hiking the John Muir Trail instead of staying here and battling it out.

I don't know how the internet will manage without me to correct all the wrong people on it, but it's a sacrifice we'll all have to make.

I'll not be able to get back to you Rog RE: data points in Alaska, etc., until I return in three weeks.

Have a good rest of the summer, winter, or post-carbonocalypse quasi-season, wherever you all may be.

Cheers.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 08/03/2010 23:29:43 MDT Print View

Good luck with the hike Nate. You'll be needing some good waterproofs at the end of August, be prepared for whiteout conditions on the high passes because there will be a big drop in temperature mid aug to mid sept.

David Olsen
(oware)

Locale: Steptoe Butte
Fires, floods fit climate-change pattern on 08/12/2010 20:14:36 MDT Print View

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012609669_climate13.html

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Antibacterial socks may boost greenhouse emissions on 08/15/2010 20:38:44 MDT Print View

The title says it all ;)

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Fires, floods fit climate-change pattern on 08/20/2010 00:55:45 MDT Print View

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012609669_climate13.html

"Stott and NASA's Gavin Schmidt, at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, said it's better to think in terms of odds: Warming might double the chances for heat waves, for example. "That is exactly what's happening," he said, "a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes."

Gavin Schmidt obviously didn't notice the extreme cold in South America during the same period. Warm events are caused by "global warming". Cold events are "just weather", in the eyes of these alarmists.

Both events, along with the Pakistan floods, were in fact caused by blocking patterns in the atmosphere. Perfectly natural, no at all "unprecedented", and have been happening every decade somewhere in the world since Noah built his ark.

Gavin et al over at realclimate.org seem to be mounting an increasingly desperate rearguard action to try to save their falsified hypothesis.

Even the NOAA recognise the Russian heatwave was a natural occurence:

Draft Report by NOAA CSI

"The extreme surface warmth over western Russia during July and early August is mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high."

"The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region…"

To further put the 'Russian heatwave' into perspective, we need to remember Russia is a big place, and according to NASA, most of it was colder than normal during late July, along with large swathes of Africa, Western Europe, Alaska, China, Siberia, The Tibetan Plateau, the Middle East...:

.russia-18/2010
July 20-27 anomalies. Source: NASA

Edited by tallbloke on 08/20/2010 02:03:11 MDT.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Sea surface temperature dropping fast as predicted on 08/20/2010 01:22:37 MDT Print View

Page filling graph time again! :-)

Bang up to date global and equatorial SST information from nice reliable satellites.

.amsre sst 18/8/2010

And here's one for the warmista to chew on. If global warming really got going in the 80's, someone forgot to tell the southern ocean.

.40-90s-sst
Data is from KNMI. The green curve is from satellite post 1980.

So how is Antarctic sea ice doing this year?
Here's the latest from NSIDC:

.Antarctic sea ice 18/8/2010

A bit more than a million square kilometers above the long term average. What about Arctic sea ice?

.arctic sea ice 18/8/2010

A bit more than a million square kilometers below the long term average.

I wonder if anyone got around to explaining to the climate alarmists that we live on a bi-polar planet.

Edited by tallbloke on 08/20/2010 02:04:25 MDT.

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 08/24/2010 18:13:05 MDT Print View

Come on guys, don't let this record breaking BPL thread die :(

"Geoengineering won't undo sea level rises
20:00 23 August 2010 by Michael Marshall

Almost all the technologies for geoengineering our way out of climate change fail a key test: they can't stop the sea from rising and swamping low-lying countries.

"You can't slap the brakes on sea levels now," says John Moore of Beijing Normal University in China. "There's too much inertia in the system."

Moore and colleagues modeled the effects of deploying five different geoengineering techniques during the 21st century, and combined each one with three scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions: continuing to grow at current rates, cutting back dramatically, or cutting only slightly.

Injecting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere – which reduces the amount of sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth – had little effect. If emissions are allowed to grow at current rates, the model showed sea levels rising by 1.1 metres by 2100. Aerosols could reduce that to 0.8 metres by 2100, but with the rate of rise showing no sign of slowing down at the end of the century, this would simply delay greater rises, not prevent them.

Blocking sunlight with space mirrors did make sea levels start to drop by the end of the century, but only when coupled with stringent emissions cuts. Results were marginally better for a world in which biofuels were rapidly developed and the resulting carbon dioxide was locked underground. This also reversed the rise in sea level by 2100, assuming strict emissions cuts elsewhere – though even in this scenario, the oceans still rose by 30 centimetres.

Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia, UK, says the study underlines the fact that what matters most is how much CO2 is in the atmosphere. As a result, he says, the priority should be to reduce emissions and create carbon sinks."

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 08/31/2010 01:34:43 MDT Print View

OK Lynn, game on. ;-)

First of all, countries aren't being swamped by sea level rise. Bangladesh has increased it's land area in the last decade, due to increased alluvial deposits brought down by an increased rate of glacier melt in the Himalaya.

There is an atoll island, Tuvalu, which has had a problem, but this is due to local fishermen using dynamite to get fish out of coral mazes.

Sea level rise as measured by satellite altimetry has showed a slowdown in rise rate in recent years.

.sea level

In the longer term perspective, sea level rose from the last ice age by 120 metres, and has risen fairly slowly in the last 6 thousand years.

.holocene sea level rise

Finally, this research you referred to is going off Jim Hansen's famous 'scenarios'. Here's how well they have been conforming to reality:

.Hansen Scenarios

Scenario A is for increased emissions. Scenario B is for business as usual emissions. C is for much reduced emissions. As you can see, Jim over-egged the co2 pudding 20 years ago, and nothing much has changed. Co2 emission has increased as per scenario A, yet global temperature is running below the reduced emissions scenario C, which has not, and does not need to happen.

Edited by tallbloke on 08/31/2010 01:40:40 MDT.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Imminent severe cold to hit Australia? on 08/31/2010 01:44:18 MDT Print View

A couple of weeks ago I forecast an imminent downturn in temperature for Australia.

Didn't the Melbourne hills just get their biggest August snowfall in 50 years?

Any comment from the Aussies?

Looking at the weather map, it looks like most of Australia escaped the worst of the Jet Stream loop I was talking about. It looks like it got a bit chilly around Arapiles neck of the woods though.

.spencer creek snow

Edited by tallbloke on 08/31/2010 02:00:38 MDT.

Lyan Jordan
(redmonk)

Locale: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
Re: Re: Imminent severe cold to hit Australia? on 08/31/2010 09:23:34 MDT Print View

Looking at the weather map, it looks like most of Australia escaped the worst of the cold He was talking about. It looks like it got a bit chilly around Arapiles neck of the woods though, but generally somebody wasn't very accurate on this prediction.

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 08/31/2010 14:54:58 MDT Print View

He's back and generating as many headlines as ever. After years as the world's leading climate change critic, "sceptical environmentalist" Bjørn Lomborg is now saying that we need to put it at the top of our priority list.

What's that, he has a new book out? Indeed, and in Smart Solutions to Climate Change, Lomborg, an adjunct professor at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, goes so far as to say we should spend $100 billion a year to sort it out.

The Guardian calls it a major U-turn, one "that will give a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby".

Lomborg's proposed solutions to the problem haven't changed all that much, however.

The new book comes out of work by Lomborg's think tank, the Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC). The CCC tries to set out priority lists for the world, by ranking humanity's problems in terms of how much good we could do by spending money on them.

When the CCC first reported in 2004, Lomborg wrote an article for New Scientist summing up the findings:
The top priority is to prevent HIV infection. A comprehensive programme would cost $27 billion. Yet, the social benefits would be immense: such a programme would avoid more than 28 million new cases of HIV infection by 2010. This makes it the best investment the world could possibly make, reaping benefits that outweigh the costs by 40 to 1... The experts rated responses to climate change extremely low on the "to do" list. In fact, the panel called these ventures - including the Kyoto protocol - "bad projects" simply because they cost more than the good they would do.

The problem was that the CCC's analysis only looked at the costs and benefits of tackling climate change using something akin to the Kyoto protocol for emissions cuts. Kyoto is absolutely beset with problems.

So in 2008 the CCC revisited its analysis, including a wider range of strategies for tackling climate change. This time, mitigating climate change ranked much higher.

In other words, this is not a debate about the reality of climate change but rather about how big a problem it is and thus how (if at all) we should deal with it. The Guardian acknowledges this:
From the beginning, [Lomborg] has said global warming is happening and is largely caused by humans. However, he has been consistently critical of what he sees as exaggeration of how much this matters, and of policies to tackle the problem. These would achieve too little and cost too much, he argues, meaning the money would be better spent on, say, reducing malaria and HIV/AIDS, or extending clean water and sanitation.

Lomborg may now think that tackling climate change is more worthwhile than he used to, but his solutions have not changed much. In a 2007 New Scientist interview, he said:
Solar panels could turn out to be the real solution to climate change. But they are expensive now. I say let's spend our money developing cheap panels that hundreds of millions of people can afford to install...I'd like to see a treaty that makes countries invest maybe 0.05 per cent of their gross domestic product in non-carbon energy technologies. It would cost seven times less than the [Kyoto] protocol, yet would generate 10 times the R&D... It is not [emissions] targets that we need, but a global carbon tax.

Other than a new enthusiasm for geoengineering our way out of trouble, he is saying the same thing today.

The Huffington Post notes that his apparent volte-face has attracted some serious supporters:
Lomborg has even attracted the endorsement of UN climate chief Rajendra Pachauri - who once compared Lomborg to Hitler. Dr Pachauri supplied an unlikely endorsement of Lomborg's forthcoming book... "This book provides not only a reservoir of information on the reality of human-induced climate change, but raises vital questions and examines viable options on what can be done," Pachauri wrote.

grist's Jonathan Hiskes sums the whole thing up:
Grant him this: Dude knows how to play the media. Who else could get such attention for adopting a position already held by millions of sensible people? I for one am not giving him and his book any more undeserved publicity. Oh wait.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Re: Imminent severe cold to hit Australia? on 08/31/2010 15:37:43 MDT Print View

"generally somebody wasn't very accurate on this prediction."

Getting predictions right isn't easy you know. Especially ones about the future. :-)

As Jim Hansen has discovered.

Edited by tallbloke on 08/31/2010 15:38:38 MDT.

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re:Arctic ice: Less than meets the eye on 08/31/2010 15:40:34 MDT Print View

"LAST September, David Barber was on board the Canadian icebreaker CCGS Amundsen (pictured), heading into the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska. He was part of a team investigating ice conditions in autumn, the time when Arctic sea ice shrinks to its smallest extent before starting to grow again as winter sets in.

Barber, an environmental scientist at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada, went to sleep one night at midnight, just before the ship was due to reach a region of very thick sea ice. The Amundsen is only capable of breaking solid ice about a metre thick, so according to the ice forecasts for ships, the region should have been impassable.

Yet when Barber woke up early the next morning, the ship was still cruising along almost as fast as usual. Either someone had made a mistake and the ship was headed for catastrophe, or there was something very wrong with the ice, he thought, as he rushed to the bridge in his pyjamas.

On the surface, the situation in the Arctic looks dramatic enough. In September 2007, the total extent of sea with surface ice shrank further than ever recorded before - to nearly 40 per cent below the long-term average. This low has yet to be surpassed. But the extent of sea ice is not all that matters, as Barber found. Look deeper and there are even more dramatic changes. This is something everyone should be concerned about because the transformation of the Arctic will affect us all."

Rest of article here:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727751.300-arctic-ice-less-than-meets-the-eye.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re:Arctic ice: Less than meets the eye on 08/31/2010 16:06:10 MDT Print View

"there was something very wrong with the ice, he thought, as he rushed to the bridge in his pyjamas."

Lol.

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: Re: Re:Arctic ice: Less than meets the eye on 08/31/2010 16:32:30 MDT Print View

""there was something very wrong with the ice, he thought, as he rushed to the bridge in his pyjamas."

Lol."

At least the guy gets an "A" for enthusiasm ;)

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Antibacterial socks kill odor and ice caps on 08/31/2010 16:35:26 MDT Print View

"New study finds that nanoparticles commonly used in antibacterial socks may significantly boost greenhouse gas emissions."

LOL

Tony Beasley
(tbeasley) - MLife

Locale: Pigeon House Mt from the Castle
Re: Re: Imminent severe cold to hit Australia? on 08/31/2010 17:11:14 MDT Print View

Hi Rog,


Thanks for that information, but I am not sure what the snow depth at Spencer's Creek has to do with the weather in Melbourne as Spencer's Creek is many hundreds of kilometers north of Melbourne and not even in the same state.

On the Spencer's Creek snow depth chart I think the reference to 84 depths is irrelevant, 150 years ago they used to get deeper snow at much lower levels,as for this years snow depths you are looking at snow from just two storms.

What do you make of this water inflow chart, this chart was published in our local rag last week.

Average dam inflows Canberra

Suggestion, you seem to have a lot of knowledge on this topic, why don't you write a paper and send it in to a relevant journal for publishing.

Tony