Nia says:
"No where in there is any proof for his claim that 2008 and 2009 winter's were cold. "

Sure Nia. Washington D.C. and the Eastern U.S. getting snowed under for weeks didn't happen. Neither did record snows all over the the world. Ski resorts in the Rockies didn't re-open this July. Britain was particularly toasty and this satellite image must have been photoshopped:

.

The up to 40000 excess deaths due to cold estimated in the UK for the 2009-2010 winter never happened... Not in Nialand anyway.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/29/2010 06:50:40 MDT.

Again define your terms. How was the winter of 2008-2009 cold? What is your metric to measure cold? What is your reference point? What is your definition of "winter". And since we are talking global warming these should be globally based and span a period of time that could be called all of "winter". A single satellite image or a few weeks of heavy snow in a few spots in the world doesn't really say much.

Once done what is the source of your raw data?

Edited by nschmald on 07/29/2010 07:12:53 MDT.

Nia, when I see you demanding the same sort of rigour from your compadre Stuart, I'll start taking you seriously.

Ciao.

Rog makes claim:

"I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model"

Wow, that sounds good and sciencey. But asked to do the most basic scientific practices, define terms and cite data, Rog refuses.

Apparently we are supposed to take Rog's scientific conclusions as law. At the same time, all the peer reviewed, published papers on the topic can be discounted as a part of a massive conspiracy.

Nia says:
"define terms and cite data"

Have you asked Stuart where he got the 'sauce' for his ketchup splattered map yet?

"massive conspiracy".

It's strange how the people who accuse others of being conspiracy theorists are the ones who use the word the most.

I don't attribute to conspiracy that which can be more easily explained by groupthink, conformity and laziness of thought.

But you want to diminish my credibility by putting this word "conspiracy" into my mouth. Shame on you, 'Nia Fear' just joined up with 'Nate Hate' and its Holocaust Denial slurs.

Your credibility is at a low ebb with me now.

And how is your credibility doing Rog, when you refuse to back up scientific claims with actual science?

Still no support for your claim that you where correct when you predicted the last two winters would be cold. But we did get some diversions and name calling so that's nice.

Edited by nschmald on 07/29/2010 08:22:16 MDT.

I'm refusing to cooperate with you, because I don't like your tone or attitude towards me.

Goodbye Nia.

And that makes 6 posts since challenged and still no support for Rog's claim that he "correctly predicted the last two cold winters".

If all science stopped when faced with a disagreeable tone, their would be no scientists left.

Pointing to local cold spells as counterevidence is just bad practice.

Thanks for pointing it out Nia.

Rog, I'll look at your other posts later when I have more time to research.

After enjoying the 30-odd pages of this 'debate,' I think I can distill all of the arguments from both sides down to two main points.

Point 1: I know you are but what am I?

Point 2: I'm rubber and you're glue, whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you.

Do I have that about right?

"I'm refusing to cooperate with you, because I don't like your tone or attitude towards me."

Rog, if everyone felt this way, you would have been alone in this thread a LONG time ago.

Nia, perhaps you have not yet mastered the Smugly-Self-Satisfied Insult (tm). Peruse some old posts - you'll find it in droves.

Can someone tell me what the last 711 post are about so I don't waste my time reading them? Is this a real thread or a game that I did'nt catch on to?

"Rog, if everyone felt this way, you would have been alone in this thread a LONG time ago.

Nia, perhaps you have not yet mastered the Smugly-Self-Satisfied Insult (tm). Peruse some old posts - you'll find it in droves"

C'mon guys, you hurt Rog's feelings so he went took his marbles and went home. I think you should all apologize and ask him to come back. I mean, how are we ever going to reach 100 pages without him?

"Is this a real thread or a game?"

Both. The real thread is about understanding how the Earth's climate system works. The game is "Goad the Denier".

I usually manage to avoid rising to the bait, but lost it yesterday. Sorry Nia, I apologize for getting shirty with you, I should know better.

"Pointing to local cold spells as counterevidence is just bad practice."

On the contrary, understanding the causes of extreme weather helps us understand how the climate system works. Climate is after all, the integral of weather. But thanks for the quote, I'll redeploy it whenever the people on your side of the debate point to heatwaves or ten year droughts and ascribe them to 'catastrophicanthropogenicglobalwarmingclimatechange'.

I'm not certain, but I think there may be a severe blast of late winter cold about to hit the southern hemisphere around Australia. South America has been in the grip of deadly cold anyway, but Austalia may be about to get a dose of it too.

Sudden stratospheric warming events are quite rare in the southern hemisphere, because of the stability of the circumpolar southern ocean. The last one occurred in Sept 2002. Was there a cold snap around then?
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/3397/2010/acp-10-3397-2010.pdf

This animation shows what has been happening at the 10Hpa level over the last month:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

This is likely to cause a big wobble in the antarctic polar vortex which may get very wavy around the edges, dragging very cold antarctic air towards the mid latitudes. Downward forces can bring icy blasts as these events buiold, this may have alrady been affecting South America.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/30/frozen-tropics-as-la-nina-takes-hold/

What causes these events in the stratosphere? No-one really knows. Some think it has to do with the 'quasi bi-annual oscillation (QBO), some point to Rossby waves in the atmosphere. I'm wondering if it may be connected to the collapse of the thermosphere by 30% of it's volume caused by the long solar minimum, and the spacequakes caused by solar wind variation which can cause sudden releases of energy high above our heads equivalent to Richter scale 6-7 earthquakes. These happen up to five times a day. Maybe when we have better data, we will be able to see if periodicities in these these build up resonances which effect large scale atmospheric events.
A rather cool interpretational simulation movie from NASA:
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2010/07/27/bounce_512x288.m1v

I'd be grateful if antipodean BPLers would keep us posted over the next couple of weeks on the ups and downs of temperature there.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/30/2010 07:50:20 MDT.

"I'd be grateful if antipodean BPLers would keep us posted over the next couple of weeks on the ups and downs of temperature there."

It's unseasonably warm. In Melbourne.











Also not raining.

Much.

Edited by Arapiles on 07/30/2010 07:59:34 MDT.

Still.

Sea surface temperatures are falling fast, a deep La Nina is forming rapidly off South America where temperatures as low as -24C have been killing people and their cattle in the Andes:

.
Source:http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/07/26/cold-weather-proves-killer-in-parts-of-south-america/
But in some places, like the Andes mountains the thermometer has dropped as low as -11 degrees F and decimated alpaca and cattle herds. The usually subtropical areas affected are particularly vulnerable because the populations are largely poor, live in conditions that are not equipped for cold weather and the governments do not have the infrastructure to handle wintry conditions.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/30/2010 08:23:39 MDT.

"South American cold surges are a year round feature of
the synoptic climatology of the region (Garreaud, 2000; Vera
and Vigliarolo, 1999; Seluchi and Marengo, 2000), with a
near weekly periodicity, but with a large range in their intensity
and meridional extent. Extreme wintertime episodes
(one every few years) produce near freezing conditions and
severe agricultural damage from central Argentina to southern
Bolivia and Brazil (locally known as friagems or geadas;
e.g. Marengo et al., 1997). In some extreme cases, the cold
air can reach very low latitudes (and even cross the equator)
affecting the eastern slopes of the Ecuadorian Andes (e.g.,
Emck, 2007)."

The Andes climate and weather
R. D. Garreaud
Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Received: 2 July 2009 – Revised: 6 August 2009 – Accepted: 9 August 2009 – Published: 13 October 2009

"It's unseasonably warm. In Melbourne."

Looks like it's been boringly near the long term average this winter according to your meteorological service. What is slightly more interesting is that BOM don't tell us what the baseline period is in the metadata. A bit shoddy that. I bet it's about 1961-1990 though, which includes the cooling period in the 70's. Welcome to 1970's weather Arapiles.

.

"Also not raining. Much."

Wetter than most of the rest of Aus apparently.

.

About 20% more rain than this time last year too.

.

I thought it was the Poms who were supposed to do the whingeing. ;-)

Edited by tallbloke on 07/30/2010 14:50:05 MDT.

It's been a very cold winter in the Australian Alpine Regions this year - more so than normal, but the amount of precipitation has been abysmal. Consistent with the general drought we have been expriencing.

Translation: breakable icy crust over a thin layer of uncompacted snow, with rocks and bushes showing through. Absolutely LOUSY for ski-touring!@#$%^&*

Cheers