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The Carbon Flame War
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Nia Schmald
(nschmald) - MLife
Cap and Dividend on 07/27/2010 20:15:10 MDT Print View

The best proposal I've seen is the cap and dividend approach. Producers have to buy carbon credits at auction which are capped at a certain amount per year. Each year that cap is reduced thus accomplishing reduced carbon output. All the money from the auction is distributed on a per capita basis to every citizen in the country.

This reduces the amount of carbon produced, increases the cost of the higher carbon producing forms of energy, which provides incentive to choose clean energy. At the same time folks have extra money to offset the disruption caused by higher traditional energy sources.

When this makes into legislation, e.g. Senator Maria Cantwell's CLEAR Act, there is a certain amount of money set aside to help particularly hard hit areas such as coal producing states.

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/27/2010 21:11:25 MDT Print View

"But then how would you allocate the resource to folks such as primary producers? Need irrigation to feed the country, need tractors running diesel to feed the country, etc...? And having also created a black market for the resource, how would you stop folks (such as primary producers) from selling their allocations at a gross profit?"

I should have been clearer, but I was just introducing the concept. Clearly there would have to be different categories based on the relationship between what is produced, how much is produced, and the importance of the product to the well being of society. Irrigation obviously goes to the top of the list; flat screen TV's? Well....

Similarly with fossil fuels, diesel for farm machinery gets top priority; diesel for Abrams tanks? Well....

Black marketing will always be a problem if you don't let the market control allocation by demand, but that is precisely what we have to get away from; It is part of why we are in the mess we find ourselves, IMO. If it requires more intrusive monitoring of how corporations distribute their products, so be it as far as I'm concerned.

Ya know, I'm growing increasingly optimistic that we're going to stretch this thread out to 100 pages with every successive post. Woohoo!!!

Edited by ouzel on 07/27/2010 21:13:15 MDT.

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
The SW works on 07/27/2010 21:17:26 MDT Print View

My compliments to the participants.
We have just demonstrated that the page number software CAN handle a line-wrap.

Cheers

Nate Meinzer
(Rezniem) - F

Locale: San Francisco
The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 00:19:18 MDT Print View

If Rog and Stu ever come back, we'll find out if we can manage a second.

Cheers.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 01:05:30 MDT Print View

I'm right here Nate. Just waiting for the hubbub to subside a bit so we can continue to look at the science, because at the end of the day, it is the truth about the way our global climate operates which should inform our policy direction.

Lynn and Tom are absolutely correct that it is the immediate, real problems of pollution, water supply, and environmental degradation which we need to concentrate on solving. The politicians are only too happy to go with 'global warming' because they can use this boogeyman to distract our attention from those real pressing issues.

As you pointed out yourself, Without China and India on board, we can only adapt to climatic changes anyway whether or not they are human influenced. China has been doing their own scientific study of temperature, and has reached the same conclusion the western sceptics have: the American global temperature reconstructions are overblown. The American DOE was funding the UK climate reserch unit, and got the answer they paid for there too, to give a semblance of 'consensus'.

The world has warmed, but not as much in recent times as the UHI riddled and maladjusted temperature reconstruction claims. The world has been warming since the end of the little ice age long before industrialization made any difference to co2 levels. Before that it cooled from the end of the medieval warm period. It an approx 900 year cycle we are just reaching the crest of around now.

A few pages back you dismissed the solar influence. AGW scientists don't however. Indeed they need solar influence to explain the ups and downs in global temperature prior to the increase in co2. And now that global temperature has levelled out for the last decade, they have suddenly rediscovered the sun again, and are re-working it into their models.

In short, instead of accepting their hypothesis has been falsified by the real world data, they are adding in ad hoc adjustments to save their model. This is bad science. The scientific method demands that when your model predictions have been falsified, you chuck out the hypothesis and start again.

That's what I have done, and what I have discovered is that I can offer a better and more realistic hypothesis based on solar influence, ocean heat retention and changing cloud albedo which does a better job of explaining the phenomena we see, enables me to make accurate predictions and fits the historical record better than co2 does.

I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model while the UK MET office and the NOAA told us we would have mild seasons, based on their co2 driven global warming model.

I'm telling you now that the air and sea temperatures are about to start plunging,

The coming northern hemisphere winter will be very cold, with much less snow than last winter in the South West of the U.S. But the snow that does fall will stay on the ground much longer in sustained freezing cold spells.

The Arctic will continue to recover in terms of ice area, as it has since 2007. Global sea ice levels will rise further above the 30 year average than they are now. Ice area doesn't lie, unlike the inaccurate global temperature graphs rammed down out throats by NOAA, NCDC, CRU and GISS.

The next couple of summers in the NH will be ok, unless a big volcano goes off (very likely soon), but by the end of summer 2014 the falling ocean heat content will lower atmospheric temperatures markedly and the real cold will start to kick in.

I sentence you to remember this forecast in the coming years, along with your jibes about "Holocaust Denial", "head in the sand no PHD science" and all the rest of the crap you threw at me.

Miguel Arboleda
(butuki) - MLife

Locale: Kanto Plain, Japan
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 01:59:13 MDT Print View

If Rog and Stu ever come back, we'll find out if we can manage a second.

I'm wondering if DEAN will ever come back. He's the architect of this thread, after all, though Rog is the developer.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
An older wisdom agrees on 07/28/2010 16:05:19 MDT Print View

Posted on another forum:

Today (27th July) was a glorious day, lots of sunshine and very little wind. I went fishing with a friend, he’s 70+ years old, out into the English Channel, a mile or so from the South Coast of England. The sea was calm and our lunch was memorable to say the least (wine suspended at a depth of 40 feet in the English Channel is deliciously cold). At about 1430 my friend looked up for some time and then said, “Oh bugger! It’s going to be a bad ‘un.”
I asked him what perturbed him so. He pointed out the swallows and swifts flying in their small groups of five or six, towards France. “They’re a month or two early,” he said. “Means that the winter’s going to be a right swine.”
He told me that the last time he’d seen such an early flight of these birds was in 1946, when it was pointed out to him by his father, before what he called “The big freeze.”
We returned to shore at about 1700 and all the while we kept looking skyward to see more and more of the scimitar-winged birds soaring south.
What do the birds know that we are not seeing?
I’m going to buy a whole load of coal and get in lots of firewood before next winter, just in case.

===============================================

I talked to an old boy of 80+ in a village near my home last year. He told me he and his family were snowed in during 1947. In June.

Ignore the agenda driven rubbish about "Hottest July EVAH!" and plan for a brutal winter.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/28/2010 16:06:16 MDT.

Craig W.
(xnomanx) - F - M
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 16:15:08 MDT Print View

"I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model..."

"I'm telling you now that the air and sea temperatures are about to start plunging..."

"The coming northern hemisphere winter will be very cold, with much less snow than last winter..."

"The Arctic will continue to recover in terms of ice area..."

"The next couple of summers in the NH will be ok, unless a big volcano goes off (very likely soon)..."

"I sentence you to remember this forecast in the coming years..."

_______________________________________________________

Nostradamus ain't got $hit on Rog Tallbloke!

Any word on locust, plagues, or WWIII?

1

Edited by xnomanx on 07/28/2010 16:18:25 MDT.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 17:39:55 MDT Print View

"Any word on locust, plagues, or WWIII?"

Heh, hi Craig. I know which way the swallows are flying, so my guess is the best insect pickings are in the south. ;-)

Locust swarms and plague historically occur predominantly during cold climate phases. 2015-2060 may qualify. Whether plague was due to malnourishment or pests hunkering in closer to humans I don't know. Probably both. The odd thing is, the 'Black Death' of the C14th which took out ~30% of Europe's population spread much faster than bubonic plague can. Nobody knows what it was.

WWIII will consist of many civil wars as populations rise up against unjustly imposed 'structural adjustment' and food shortages. Given that the investors and stock marketeers have the world on a 7 month stockpile 'just in time' food production cycle, it could get real ugly real quick if there is a worldwide food shortage following a harsh winter and a biggish volcano going pop.

If on the other hand the sun wakes up from it's deep slumber and lets go of a big coronal mass ejection in our direction, we could find ourselves with a lot of fried vehicle ignition electronics and power distribution transformers. This wouldn't help food production and distribution either. The ancient Egyptians had it right with their 7 year grain silos I reckon.

In summary, the future's uncertain (except for my climate prophecies) and the end is always near, so eat drink and be merry!

Nostradamus was big on funny hats. Check this one:

.Nostradamus

Actually, it might be the same hat when it was a bit fresher.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/28/2010 17:58:55 MDT.

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
Re: Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 18:48:52 MDT Print View

"I'm telling you now that the air and sea temperatures are about to start plunging..."
"The coming northern hemisphere winter will be very cold, with much less snow than last winter..."
"The Arctic will continue to recover in terms of ice area..."
"The next couple of summers in the NH will be ok, unless a big volcano goes off (very likely soon)..."
"I sentence you to remember this forecast in the coming years..."

Well, I'll say this much for Rog T: he is willing to make concrete testable predictions. This is how science works.


"I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model..."
Some more info on this model would be very interesting. Pencil and paper? Petaflop program? Interesting.

Cheers

Travis Leanna
(T.L.) - MLife

Locale: Wisconsin
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 19:01:56 MDT Print View

I should get some lottery numbers from Rog. ;)

Ken Helwig
(kennyhel77) - MLife

Locale: Scotts Valley CA via San Jose, CA
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 19:04:41 MDT Print View

Here is a simple view. Why don't we all (Nations included) try to be responsible. Yes I know that this is a romantic view considering how China and India do things.....But really, it is time for all of to take a better way of lightening our load on this planet. Am I being too idealistic???? Probably. But, one can only hope....right?

Nate Meinzer
(Rezniem) - F

Locale: San Francisco
The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 19:54:11 MDT Print View

Here's a great article on the retreating sea ice at realclimate.org.

Highlights:

"The winter 2009/2010 will be remembered by many people in Europe (and not only there) as particularly cold, with lots of snow and ice. Not least because of the sustained cold, some began to wonder if global warming indeed was real.

Such questioning of global warming based on a regional cold period of course neglects the crucial difference between weather and climate, with the former being the only thing that we as individuals will ever be able to experience first hand. A single regional cold spell has not a lot to do with climate – let alone with global climate. This becomes quite obvious if one instead considers the mean temperature of the entire globe during the last 12 months: this period was, according to the GISS data, the warmest 12-month period since the beginning of the records 130 years ago.

sea ice

Because of the very low thickness of much of the Arctic sea ice, it wasn’t too surprising that at the end of the winter, sea-ice extent decreased rapidly. This rapid loss lead up to the lowest June sea-ice extent since the beginning of reliable observations. After this rapid loss of the very thin ice that had formed late in winter, the retreat slowed down substantially but the ice extent remained well below the long-term mean. Currently, the ice covers an area that is slightly larger than the extent in late July of the record year 2007. However, this does not really allow for any reliable projections regarding the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in the weeks to come.

The reason for this is mostly that sea ice in the Arctic has become very thin. Hence, in contrast to the much thicker ice of past decades, the ice now reacts very quickly and very sensitively to the weather patterns that are predominant during a certain summer. This currently limits the predictability of sea-ice extent significantly."

sea ice

Edited by Rezniem on 07/28/2010 19:55:23 MDT.

Craig W.
(xnomanx) - F - M
Hope on 07/28/2010 20:01:42 MDT Print View

...is the absence of action.

If we all focused on what we WILL do as opposed to what we hope will happen...

Nia Schmald
(nschmald) - MLife
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 20:10:56 MDT Print View

Interesting point regarding the thickness of the ice caps. Seems like volume or water content would be a more interesting metric than surface area.

Tony Beasley
(tbeasley) - MLife

Locale: Pigeon House Mt from the Castle
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 20:13:44 MDT Print View

2010 may turn out the warmest year in the instrumental record
1. NCDC (NOAA/National Climatic Data center)
2. NASA GISS
3. Had/CRU
4. RSS MSU (Satellite)


Northern Hemisphere Record Temperatures
A. Last month saw the hottest temperature on record for Asia- with 53C in Pakistan.
B. Moscow has also been recording record temperatures- 37.4 degrees C- the monthly anomaly will be around +7.5 degrees C. The death toll from drunk-drowning has now reached 2000(!) people.
C. Beijing had it hottest day on record earlier in the month- 40.6C. Japan scored a 39.4C on 22nd July.
Hundreds of maximum and minimum temperature records have been broken across the U.S. and Canada in the last two months.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records.php?ts=daily&elem=maxt&month=7&day=26&year=2010&sts[]=US&submitted=Get+Records#recs
Temperatures at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks, Connecticut reached 102°F (39°C), tying with July 3rd, 1966 and August 9th, 2001 for the all-time hottest temperature on record at that locale. On July 7th, Raleigh/Durham International Airport in North Carolina also reported a maximum temperature of 102°F (39°C), breaking the previous daily record of 100°F (38°C) set in 1977.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/photos/2010/07/roasting-under-a-hot-summer-su.html

Closer to Home:

It has been very warm across northern, north-western and some inland parts of Australia over recent days. We broke quite a few minimum temperature records- including Darwin, which broke its July minimum record by 1.5 degrees C. The temperature did not drop below 26.6 degrees Celsius on Sunday night. Looking at the forecast, we expect records to continue to be broken over the next 4-5 days.

The Southern Annular Mode index is at record high values. This has the effect of pulling the storm tracks that typically move across southern Australia further south- and has resulted in extraordinarily dry weather in south-west WA and Tasmania. Tasmania is tracking at close to it's driest start to the year, with water being carted at the top of the Derwent. In Victoria- the period of reasonable rainfall since Spring last year abruptly ended at the start of June, indicating that the long term rainfall deficiencies are most likely still with us. The SAM is the Southern Hemisphere equivalent of the Arctic Oscillation (AAO)- which is an annular structure of pressure variability around the poles. Extreme negative AAO was responsible for cold outbreaks over parts of Europe and North America.
-------------------------------------------
Nice summary of the media and 'climategate'.



You wouldn't read about it: climate scientists right
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/you-wouldnt-read-about-it-climate-scientists-right-20100725-10qev.html
On the specific allegations made against the behavior of the CRU scientists, ''we find that the rigour and honesty [of the scientists] as scientists are not in doubt''. Importantly, it concluded: ''We did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.'' At best, the coverage of the inquiries' conclusions added up to a 20th of the coverage the original allegations received, which leaves us to ponder the curiosities of a news media that gets so over-excited by dramatic allegations and then remains so incurably uninterested in their resolution.
The newspapers that gave greatest play to the allegations tended to give less attention to the findings. The columnists who gave greatest vent to their indignation have not made any revisions or corrections, let alone apologized to the scientists whose integrity they so sweepingly impugned.

Stuart Allie
(stuart.allie)

Locale: Australia
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/28/2010 20:38:26 MDT Print View

"I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model..."

The only problem is that the last two winters were not cold at all. Here's last NH winter surface temperature anomalies:
Winter 2009 STA

The 2008 picture is similar; not as warm but still quite a warm northern winter.

Rog T's predictions have been proven wrong. I'm sure he'll write copious amounts of BS to try and convince people otherwise but the simple fact is - he is wrong, end of story.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/29/2010 01:53:06 MDT Print View

Looks really toasty up there in the arctic. I wonder how many thermometer stations are actually upt here to confirm the 1200km extrapolations made by GISS? Answer, none. GISS also doesn't use the most northerly station in Alaska, because it SHOWS NO WARMING TREND.

Looking at that cartoon,you'd wonder how arctic sea ice managed to increase it's minimum extent in 2008 and 2009 if the winter anomalies were really that high. If you think about it, it's not thermodynamically feasible to have a +3C anomaly on top of icewater anyway.

Interesting that the base period used is 1951 to 1980, the global cooling period when temperatures fell from the 1940 peak and stayed lower until the end of the 1970's due to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Hardly surprising then that this "anomaly" map is covered in ketchup. It looks like a crime scene.

Tony: There's so much whitewash left over from the hastily convened "enquiries" that they are talking of increasing Earh's albedo with it. They let the chief climategate scientist Phil Jones of CRU decide which of his papers they would review. What a hoot. The defendant gets to select the evidence. One of the Judges had been at East Anglia university for 20 years previously.

Independent inquiry with unbiased actors? Wake up and smell the stench of corruption.

Nate: Check the date on this quote:
"Warming Arctic Climate Melting Glaciers Faster, Raising Ocean Level, Scientist Says - “A mysterious warming of the climate is slowly manifesting itself in the Arctic, engendering a “serious international problem,” Dr. Hans Ahlmann, noted Swedish geophysicist, said today. - New York Times, May 30, 1937 "

Meanwhile Antarctic sea ice is at a record extent. You won't hear about that in the media though. Newsflash: The Earth has a bipolar climate system. Who'd a thunk it? Frequently it's warm at one pole and cold at the other. At the moment, it's looking likely both ends will slip into negative anomaly territory within a few months. Big la Nina coming. Brrrr.

Edited by tallbloke on 07/29/2010 09:10:35 MDT.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/29/2010 04:05:57 MDT Print View

Roger C said:
"I correctly predicted the last two cold winters using my solar-planetary energy model..."
Some more info on this model would be very interesting. Pencil and paper? Petaflop program? Interesting.


Hi Roger, neither. Just a perfectly ordinary laptop PC, some free software and internet access to other peoples petaflop computers. Plus a modicum of common sense and some interpretational skill.

Here's a graph I created using one of my spreadsheets and some data from the jet propulsion laboratory. This is an earlier effort, which doesn't capture or predict El Nino events.

.planetary temperature

The graph compares sea surface temperature HADsst2GL (red curve), with curves generated from solar and planetary data.

The black curve uses a combination of Length of Day (LOD) data as a proxy for ocean oscillations and sunspot number data. The monthly sunspot number values are added cumulatively as positive or negative values departing from my estimated ocean equilibrium value of ~40SSN. The LOD values are added via a simple best fit scaling technique using a hghly sensitive piece of equipment called tallbloke’s eyeball.

The yellow curve uses the sunspot numbers again, but instead of LOD data, I use my discovery that LOD variation approximately correlates with variation in the distance of the solar system centre of mass in the ‘z’-axis from the solar equatorial plane (SSB-z) and substitute in those values instead as a scaled LOD proxy.

The green curve goes the whole hog. Since I discovered that the SSB-z data can also be used as a proxy for sunspot numbers (on a different smoothing and lag value to the LOD proxy), it is used both for sunspot proxy and LOD proxy. This enables me to reconstruct past and predict future planetary surface temperatures, to a limited degree of accuracy. There are other factors not yet included in the model which will require the adjustment of parameters. E.g. volcanic activity.

Nia Schmald
(nschmald) - MLife
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 07/29/2010 06:02:03 MDT Print View

"I'm sure he'll write copious amounts of BS to try and convince people otherwise"

Looks like Stewart can predict the the future with considerable accuracy.

No where in there is any proof for his claim that 2008 and 2009 winter's were cold. Nor any definition of what was meant by "cold" in the first place. In stead we get a few unsupported attacks (if you're going to be a scientist you need to cite your sources and define your terms Rog) and then he quickly changes subject.

Edited by nschmald on 07/29/2010 06:06:49 MDT.