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Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
The Carbon Flame War: on 01/14/2010 07:33:06 MST Print View

Some months ago I said here:

"The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter."

I'm better at this climate prediction stuff than The UK Met Office is for sure.

You still keeping that $1000 bet money safe for me Dean?

Skots: Lets talk about ice again.

I see the global sea ice anomaly is around 5% below the long term average.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

Just like it was in 1980, and 1985/6, and 1989/90, and 1995, and 2002.

Arctic sea ice is just around 1 standard deviation below the long term average at the moment.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

Which is surprising, considering sea surface temps are so high, and the warmed air above them is travelling north over the ocean to the north pole as the freezing air get pulled down over the continental masses don't you think?

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
Re: The Carbon Flame War: on 01/25/2010 13:14:17 MST Print View

http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/news_and_events.htm

IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers1 - 20 January 2010, Geneva

The Synthesis Report, the concluding document of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (page 49) stated: “Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability. Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.”

This conclusion is robust, appropriate, and entirely consistent with the underlying science and the broader IPCC assessment.


It has, however, recently come to our attention that a paragraph in the 938 page Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment2 refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.


The Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance. This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of “the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source into an IPCC Report” 3. We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of performance.

Nathaniel Lynn
(bc74sj) - F

Locale: Midwest
Re: Ok, I'll rephrase... on 02/13/2010 08:11:52 MST Print View

Dean,
I believe there are way more than 17 pirates now, but to be fair this post was from 2008. Maybe the cooling we have seen has caused more pirates to resurface?

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/13/2010 18:32:11 MST Print View

Huh??? I live in Seattle and trust me, Roger, when I say that the snowfall has been pretty skimpy. Rainfall is a bit above normal, but nowhere near a record. As for snowfall.....I'd be expecting an invoice from dean any time now. ;}

Doug I.
(idester) - MLife

Locale: MidAtlantic
Re: Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/13/2010 18:50:07 MST Print View

That's because we're getting all your snow Tom! And while many in this area would love to give it back, I'm keeping it! WooHoo! Finally, a real winter here!

Rick Dreher
(halfturbo) - MLife

Locale: Northernish California
Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/13/2010 19:07:24 MST Print View

Hi Tom, you guys have some serious catching up to do.

Western US basin snow water content 021210

Cheers,

--Rick

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Catching up in the PNW on 02/13/2010 20:55:47 MST Print View

For sure, Rick. All we've had so far this winter is liquid sunshine, which doesn't bode well for next summer. OTOH, it looks like the Sierra is finally getting some relief. Things were looking pretty dry down there last summer and I've got my fingers crossed that it'll be better this time around.

Cheers,

Tom

Robert Blean
(blean) - MLife

Locale: San Jose -- too far from Sierras
Re: Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/13/2010 21:11:12 MST Print View

Rick,

What is "% of Average"? Average for this date, or average for the season?

-- Bob

Nia Schmald
(nschmald) - MLife
Re: The Carbon Flame War: on 02/13/2010 21:32:08 MST Print View

"Some months ago I said here:

'The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter.'"

Sorry Rog.

"Washington snowpack conditions below normal... snowpack conditions statewide are 84 percent of average, down from 132 percent just a month ago."

"Snowpack in the Cascades is well below average, between 50 and 70 percent because a strong El Nino has produced warmer and drier conditions throughout the Pacific Northwest."

So looks like your little bet might not be so safe after all.

Personally I think it's a sucker's bet for anyone to try to predict the weather. But I enjoy the game if it's not my money.

Besides, trying to cherry pick a few dates or a few locations to prove or disprove global warming is a false argument. Global warming means global warming overall not that every day and every spot is as hot as the Sahara desert. And no one is claiming that it is a perfect linear climb. That's why scientists use things like statistics and regression curves.



Sure there's a recent dip. There have been many such dips in the last century. Doesn't change the overall upward trajectory much though.

You're better off sticking to questioning the green house gas theory for global warming than trying to claim that the planet is not warming. It is after all virtually impossible to prove any theory of causation beyond all doubt in a complex system. And the earth is an extremely complex system.

After all gravity is still just a theory. There's nothing to prove it as fact.

Edited by nschmald on 02/13/2010 21:42:12 MST.

Rick Dreher
(halfturbo) - MLife

Locale: Northernish California
Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/13/2010 23:20:39 MST Print View

Hi Bob,

This map presents average to date. It's updated daily here.

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswen.html

To Tom: The northern and Southern Sierra are above average to date and the central Sierra is about average--all this is very good news for us. That said it will take a very wet winter to fill the major reservoirs after three substantially subpar years, but even an average winter will help the ecosystems a good deal (and perhaps stave off a bad fire season). The odds of further very large storms this season diminish from this point forward.

Arizona and New Mexico have been remarkably soggy by comparison to the rest of the west, but the critical upper Colorado River drainage remains very dry. Hard to believe that drought began in 1999.

Rick

Joe Clement
(skinewmexico) - MLife

Locale: Southwest
The Carbon Flame War on 02/13/2010 23:28:13 MST Print View

New Mexico is having a great snow year because I'm not getting to ski.

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: "The North Western USA will likely suffer more record snowfalls this winter. on 02/14/2010 17:47:58 MST Print View

"but even an average winter will help the ecosystems a good deal (and perhaps stave off a bad fire season)."

Always my first concern, Rick. It's been painful to see the impact of multi year periods of drought in the Sierra over the last 2 decades, so I'm looking forward to one of those increasingly rare lush seasons this year, mosquitos and all.

OTO,I've felt for years that filling the reservoirs is an exercise in futility anyway because they just keep packing in more people. It's why I moved up to the PNW from San Francisco 25 years ago. But I can't stay away from the Sierra; as beautiful as it is up here, my heart has always belonged to the "Range of Light".

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 02/15/2010 12:40:18 MST Print View

World may not be warming, say scientists



The doubts of Christy and a number of other researchers focus on the thousands of weather stations around the world, which have been used to collect temperature data over the past 150 years.

These stations, they believe, have been seriously compromised by factors such as urbanisation, changes in land use and, in many cases, being moved from site to site.

Christy has published research papers looking at these effects in three different regions: east Africa, and the American states of California and Alabama.

“The story is the same for each one,” he said. “The popular data sets show a lot of warming but the apparent temperature rise was actually caused by local factors affecting the weather stations, such as land development.”


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7026317.ece

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 04/03/2010 02:50:39 MDT Print View

"The doubts of Christy and a number of other researchers focus on the thousands of weather stations around the world, which have been used to collect temperature data over the past 150 years"

Not so many thousands anymore. The selectivity of the stations used in the global record has been another factor exaggerating the spurious trend.

E.M. Smith, an American computer programmer has been studying the effects of station dropout on the record, along with other data massaging:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Australian drought debunked on 06/30/2010 01:50:10 MDT Print View

Read all about it.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/29/waxman-malarkey-2-impact-zone-australia/

And, Arapiles may be glad to hear Victoria just had it's wettest June in 9 years. Hope the folks farm got a good dowsing.

By the way, Sydney just had it's coldest June night since 1949.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/30/record-cold-down-under/

Edited by tallbloke on 06/30/2010 01:57:45 MDT.

Dave T
(DaveT) - F
drought. on 06/30/2010 03:06:00 MDT Print View

i am stoked that there actually WASN'T a drought in Australia for the last number of years.

Tony Beasley
(tbeasley) - MLife

Locale: Pigeon House Mt from the Castle
Re: Australian drought debunked on 06/30/2010 03:52:35 MDT Print View

Hi Rog,

Thanks for the information that there is no drought in Australia but it obvious that you really have no idea what is happening down under, I think you should travel out here to find out what actually is going on.

Below are some figures of current total water storage levels for the major Australian cities, all of these cities are on permanent water restrictions of various levels and have been for many years. In Canberra we have major restrictions on watering our gardens and are only allowed to wash our cars with recycled water. Until recent rains Brisbane had some of the lowest water storage levels.

Brisbane 96%
Sydney 57.6%
Melbourne 33.7%
Canberra 55.3%
Adelaide 55%
Perth 34.8%

Tony

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
Re: Re: Australian drought debunked on 06/30/2010 04:00:07 MDT Print View

Not to mention the provincial city of Goulbourn, which for some months was trucking drinking water in because their storage dam was down to 5%, and that was mainly mud. The residents were on really tight restrictions!

Cheers

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Re: Australian drought debunked on 06/30/2010 04:47:33 MDT Print View

Sure, but these restrictions and low levels are more to do with water use than lowered rainfall or 'global warming'. Or can't you both see that? Look at the figures for th M-D basin in relation to extraction and damming.

Don't the graphs in the article speak for themselves? Global Warming (such as it was), increased rainfall in Aus over the C20th, according to the BOM's own figures. Yet they spread lies and deception in their pronouncements. Pure scientific fraud!

As for DaveT well, Duh!
"These last number of years"? Please.

How is it that when sceptics point to cold winters they are told:
"It's just weather - the minimum period for a look at climate is 30 years"

But when it's dry for a few years in some corner of the globe, "It's Global WARMING!!!"

Even when the data says otherwise.

Edited by tallbloke on 06/30/2010 06:56:02 MDT.

Andrew Lush
(lushy) - MLife

Locale: Lake Mungo, Mutawintji NPs
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 06/30/2010 05:11:21 MDT Print View

snip

Edited by lushy on 06/30/2010 05:41:38 MDT.