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The Carbon Flame War
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Nick Gatel
(ngatel) - MLife

Locale: Southern California
Re: ideas on 04/06/2012 00:55:28 MDT Print View

I'm just posting ideas Nick.

Ideas are good! I have been playing around and using solar for 10 years. It has great potential, but we are not there yet. Cost vs collection capacity. It truly has great potential.

My rant is how the government takes land meant to be protected and lets special interests or business take advantage of it to the detriment of everyone else. There is plenty of privately owned desert land these companies can buy... but getting a favor for less money from political hacks is more attractive.

We need to relive our public lands of all commercial enterprises. Kick out the cattle, miners, lumber companies, concessionaires... everyone making a buck. The ranchers, mining companies, Weyerhousers, hotel and store owners can go buy their own land. Lets start by clearing out Yosemite. As a matter of fact, lets just rip out the roads. Ah... I feel better already :)

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
Re: Re: Re: envirronmental reasons on 04/06/2012 15:48:52 MDT Print View

> how the US works? The people elect representatives to carry out the will of the people?
Ah, but do they do that once elected?
And wasn't it ultimately the 'will of the people' that lead to the housing melt down?

Cheers

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Re: Re: envirronmental reasons on 04/06/2012 16:47:52 MDT Print View

"And wasn't it ultimately the 'will of the people' that lead to the housing melt down?"

There was also the matter of their friendly local bankers ever ready to make them loans they weren't qualified for, and the Wall Street crowd that turned the secondary mortgage industry into a giant casino. Plenty of blame to go around, IMO.

Travis Leanna
(T.L.) - MLife

Locale: Wisconsin
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: envirronmental reasons on 04/06/2012 17:29:55 MDT Print View

>There was also the matter of their friendly local bankers ever ready to make them loans they weren't qualified for, and the Wall Street crowd that turned the secondary mortgage industry into a giant casino. Plenty of blame to go around, IMO.

Yup, +1

EVERYONE was (and still are!!!!) writing checks they couldnt cash. Literally.

Stuart R
(Scunnered) - F

Locale: Scotland
CO2 drove end to last ice age on 04/10/2012 09:44:19 MDT Print View

A new study apparently shows that rises in atmospheric CO2 preceeded the global temperature increase at the end of the last ice age.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17611404

Michael L
(mpl_35) - MLife

Locale: The Palouse
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 04/10/2012 10:44:51 MDT Print View

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/04/global_warming_hiatus_in_recen.html

For people who want more action on global warming, an inconvenient truth has arisen over the last decade: Annual average temperatures stayed relatively flat globally -- and dropped in the United States and Oregon -- despite mankind's growing release of greenhouse gases.

The hiatus in temperature increases may be contributing to higher public skepticism about warming, particularly in the United States. But it hasn't changed most climate researchers' opinions of likely substantial human-caused warming this century from releases of carbon dioxide and other gases.

It occurs at the high-end of a 100-year-long warming trend and follows record, El Niño-fueled highs in 1998, notes Phil Mote of Oregon State University, who headlines a global warming presentation Tuesday before the Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society.

The presentation by Mote and two other Oregon researchers comes after a panel of skeptics of manmade global warming presented to the Oregon chapter in January.

"We are at a level where it's a whole lot warmer than it used to be," Mote says. "The physical explanations are pretty convincing on why there has been a pause in global warming, and we have no reason to think it will last much longer."



View full size
Skeptics say the lack of temperature increases should heighten doubts about projections of severe warming. Computer climate models didn't predict the hiatus, notes Portland meteorologist Chuck Wiese, among the scientists who presented in January.

"It doesn't matter whether it's still warm compared to earlier periods," Wiese says. "The whole idea was it would get warmer as C02 went up. This is a very severe contradiction to everything they put in their climate (computer) code and they modeled."

Skeptics tend to focus on temperatures since 1998, a record hot year globally. The global average annual temperature has leveled since then. In the U.S., it has dropped at a rate of 0.85 degrees Fahrenheit a decade, according to the National Climatic Data Center. In Oregon, it has dropped 0.79 degrees a decade, thanks in part to a string of La Niñas, sparked by a relatively cold pool of water in the subtropical Pacific Ocean.

That's a short time, but also a sharp contrast to warming predictions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts warming of 2 degrees to 11 degrees in the 21st century, depending in part on how much fossil fuel the world burns. In Oregon, predictions range from 3 degrees to 10 degrees through 2100.

Non-skeptics, including the bulk of climate researchers, note the overall trend is still up since 1895, when standardized U.S. records began. Oregon has warmed about 1 degree since then, according to NCDC data, and the globe has warmed about 1.5 degrees.


GLOBAL WARMING PRESENTATION
The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society, which hosted global warming skeptics in January, has set up a "counterpoint meeting" featuring three Oregon scientists who say manmade emissions are significantly warming the planet.
WHEN: 7 to 9 p.m. Tuesday
WHERE: In the "Grand Ballroom" on the third floor of the Smith Memorial Student Union Building at Portland State University.
DETAILS: Free and open to the public. The Oregonian will cover the meeting on OregonLive.com Tuesday.

PAST COVERAGE: The January controversy about the panel discussions:
* Presentation by global warming skeptics draws big crowd
and
* Global warming skeptics take center stage


Temperatures are also relatively high, especially globally. February marked the 324th consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th century average. Eight of the 13 years after 1998 are among the top 10 warmest globally since 1895, NCDC data indicates.

The Northwest had a notably cold winter, unlike much of the contiguous United States. Last month, the U.S. recorded its warmest March in the 117-year record,NCDC announced Monday.

The global average is less variable and easier to predict than climate changes in regions and states, says Andreas Schmittner, an OSU professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences and one of the three panelists tonight.

"It is called global warming and not Oregon warming or Corvallis warming," he says. "If you pick certain places in the world, you will always find differing answers."

The temperature hiatus has received a lot of attention from climate researchers, though Schmittner and other researchers say precisely pinning down the reasons for it is unlikely.

Explanations include ramped-up coal burning in Asia, which increases short-lived spurts of sulfur-dioxide that dampen temperatures. Researchers also point to a low solar cycle, El Niño-La Niña cycles and increased heat uptake in the deep ocean.

"On time scales of years to a decade, naturally induced surface temperature changes can dominate current anthropogenic (manmade) warming," a 2009 study from NASA and Navy researchers concluded.

Skeptics say they think that point will hold true in the longer term, too. Climatologists, and climate models, are overestimating the impact of greenhouse gases on warming relative to natural climate cycles, they say, and aren't being held accountable when warming projections don't pan out.

"They just keep moving the goalposts to where you can never get a satisfactory answer," Wiese says.

Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and a lead author on IPCC reports, says he expects warming to resume. Hiatuses have occurred in the past, Mote says, and improved climate models predict them in the future.

Going forward, an upward trending solar cycle and a likely end to an unusual string of La Niñas should mean increased warming, Mote says.

NASA researchers predict a likely new record global temperature in 2013 or 2014. "The slowdown of warming is likely to prove illusory," they said.

"If I had to bet on 10 years from now," Mote says, "I would bet 3-to-1 we'll see some kind of increase."

dan mchale
(wildlife) - MLife

Locale: Cascadia
coal on 04/11/2012 12:41:55 MDT Print View

Nick, I think LA still gets 40% of it's power from coal - hard to believe things are still so primitive!

They need more solar on rooftops;

http://www.scpr.org/news/2012/01/09/30710/new-proposal-seeks-encourage-solar-farms-la-roofto/

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: CO2 causality is cart before donkey on 04/13/2012 00:58:33 MDT Print View

Stuart Rob says:
A new study apparently shows that rises in atmospheric CO2 preceeded the global temperature increase at the end of the last ice age.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17611404


Much jiggery going on with the stats in this study. There's a long history to attempts to overturn the findings of many ice core teams that temperature change precedes changes in co2 by 800-2800 years at the glacial-interglacial timescale. Dean wanted to tell us Cuffey and Vimeaux did it back on about page 5 of this thread. It's groundhog day again...

Here are a few links

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-history-a-look-at-multiple-timescales-in-the-context-of-the-shakun-et-al-paper/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/08/did-shakun-et-al-really-prove-that-co2-precede-late-glacial-warming-part-1/

And on shorter timescales:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/06/26/which-causes-which-out-of-atmospheric-temperature-and-co2-content/

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 04/13/2012 05:18:41 MDT Print View

Michael Lang's Oregon article says:

Skeptics tend to focus on temperatures since 1998, a record hot year globally. The global average annual temperature has leveled since then. In the U.S., it has dropped at a rate of 0.85 degrees Fahrenheit a decade, according to the National Climatic Data Center. In Oregon, it has dropped 0.79 degrees a decade, thanks in part to a string of La Niñas, sparked by a relatively cold pool of water in the subtropical Pacific Ocean.


Conversely, the string of big El Nino's between 1976 and 1998 raised global near surface air temperature - the standard measure of 'global warming'. This period coincides with the positive phase of the PDO, the Pacific decadal oscillation, which is starting to shift to its negative phase. It's been up and down on a 60 year cycle throughout the C20th and probably long before too. In the later C20th it was in phase with the AMO, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.

What causes these quasi regular oceanic oscillations? I think the Sun has a lot to do with it. I calculated the long term average sunspot number and made a cumulative series departing from that figure, which also coincides with the sunspot number at which the oceans neither lose nor gain heat content. The curve I got shows that the heat accumulating in the ocean fell from around 1880 to 1930 and rose from there all the way to 2004, where it peaked and started to fall slightly.


Non-skeptics, including the bulk of climate researchers, note the overall trend is still up since 1895, when standardized U.S. records began. Oregon has warmed about 1 degree since then, according to NCDC data, and the globe has warmed about 1.5 degrees.

There is strong evidence that the medieval times were as warm or slightly warmer than today, and that there was a period in between known as the little ice age when it was a couple of degrees cooler. The rise in temperature since around 1690 can therefore be seen as a recovery from the little ice age to the modern maximum. On a quasi regular cycle of ~1000 years going back from the present we get the modern maximum. the little ice age, the medieval warm period, the cold dark ages, the roman warm period (when grapes were grown for wine making in Northern England), the Mycian warm period, the bronze age warm period, and so on back to the end of the last ice age.

Plenty of natural variation to think about.

Nick Gatel
(ngatel) - MLife

Locale: Southern California
Re: coal on 04/13/2012 11:04:07 MDT Print View

"Nick, I think LA still gets 40% of it's power from coal - hard to believe things are still so primitive!

They need more solar on rooftops"

---------------------------
Well, sort of :)

The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power delivers electricity to its citizens, and 41% is derived from coal. It is a public utility. Plus they keep raising the rates, because they, like all government agencies, are inefficient/incompetent/evil. Plus they have done a Piss-Poor job of updating infrastructure. And many government employees would lose their jobs if they could switch. Their union has clout. A 2008 newspaper article presents that the average salary (excluding benefits) was $77K per year and 13% were over $100K per year. It gets worse...

LA's Highest Paid Workers

Government at its worst.

Now, SCE (investor owned) delivers power to 14 million people, mostly in Southern California. Their mix is:
- 37% natural gas
- 19% nuclear
- 18% renewable (solar/wind/small hydro plants/biomass/geothermal)
- 7% coal
- 6% large hydroelectric

SCE is not a perfect company, they go after subsidies and government favors/franchises, but they put the Los Angeles DWP to shame. They are also heavily regulated by government and are in bed with some politicians at the same time.

Solar is expensive compared to the alternatives, and as long as cheaper energy sources are available it will be slow to implement. The only reason solar is used as much as it is, is due to government subsidies. Subsidies reinforce the fact that the recipients are not economically viable. Obtaining subsidies is proof that the recipients are not profitable; they keep businesses alive that would go out of business without subsidies. Subsidies go to businesses based on their political clout; not performance. Subsidies remove the incentive for companies to develop better products, not to mention subsidies always grow and expand. Subsidies redistribute income. Subsidies attract the incompetent.



;)

David Olsen
(oware)

Locale: Steptoe Butte
-video- Antarctic ice melting from below, reveals satellite on 04/26/2012 16:32:25 MDT Print View

"Launched in January 2003, NASA’s ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) studied the changing mass and thickness of Antarctica’s ice from its location in polar orbit. An international research team used over 4.5 million surface height measurements collected by ICESat’s GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) instrument from Oct. 2005 to 2008. They concluded that 20 of the 54 shelves studied — nearly half — were losing thickness from underneath."

"The study also found that Antarctica’s winds are shifting in response to climate change."

“This has affected the strength and direction of ocean currents,” Pritchard said. “As a result warm water is funnelled beneath the floating ice. These studies and our new results suggest Antarctica’s glaciers are responding rapidly to a changing climate.”


http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0426/Antarctic-ice-melting-from-below-reveals-satellite-video

jerry adams
(retiredjerry) - MLife

Locale: Oregon and Washington
Re: -video- Antarctic ice melting from below, reveals satellite on 04/26/2012 16:52:52 MDT Print View

What is "the Columbia Highlands" and is there any good backing there?

Always looking for a place to backpack away from all the rain in Portland.

David Olsen
(oware)

Locale: Steptoe Butte
http://columbiahighlands.org/ on 04/26/2012 17:29:40 MDT Print View

Upper reaches of the Columbia. On the dry side of WA state.

"Some of the most critically endangered and charismatic species in North America are regular breeders in the Columbia Highlands, including grizzly bear, wolverine, Canada lynx and gray wolf. The Columbia Highlands hosts rare mammals found almost nowhere else in the lower 48 United States, including the highly endangered woodland caribou and the northern bog lemming. Animals such as elk, cougar, snowshoe hare, and pika take refuge in the boreal and subalpine forests. Other creatures such as black bear, moose, and pygmy shrew thrive in the dense understory of mixed-conifer forests. Mule deer, white-tailed deer, mountain goat, bighorn sheep, bobcat, coyote, wolf, fox, ermine, badger, mink, marten, Columbian ground squirrel, fisher—all can be found in the Columbia Highlands."

My favorite backpacks are along the Kettle Crest, Gypsy Peak, and just across the border
the Valhalla and Kokanee Provincial parks.

Edited by oware on 04/26/2012 17:31:54 MDT.

David Olsen
(oware)

Locale: Steptoe Butte
Plants flower faster than climate change models predict on 05/02/2012 14:22:33 MDT Print View

From the Journal Nature

"With her colleagues she studied the timing of the flowering and leafing of plants in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species.

According to Dr Wolkovich, the results were a surprise.

"What we found is that the experiments don't line up with the long term data, and in fact they greatly underestimate how much plants change their leafing and flowering with warming," she said.

"So for models based on experimental data, then we would expect that plants are leafing four times faster and flowering eight times faster in the long term historical record than what we're using in some of the models.""

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature11014.html

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Plants flower faster than climate change models predict on 05/07/2012 10:05:22 MDT Print View

Hi David,

Perhaps she'd have been less surprised if she'd been aware of old Chinese records written by gardeners tending the gardens of the forbidden palace in Beijing. They recorded a lot of variation in the days of the year certain species came into flower. These records have been used to assist the calibration of proxy records and determine solar variation too.

The journal 'Nature' got taken over by the advocacy group pushing the anthropogenic warming meme quite a few years ago. For a number of years they've stopped publishing solar papers altogether...

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/17/sun-rediscovered-by-nature/

No sign of sunlight yet...

David Olsen
(oware)

Locale: Steptoe Butte
Warm water threatens vast Anatarctic ice shelf (+video) on 05/09/2012 15:59:44 MDT Print View

Nature? Nope, no peer review there.

""According to our calculations, this protective barrier will disintegrate by the end of this century," said Dr Harmut Hellmer, lead author of the study, published in the journal Nature this week."

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0509/Warm-water-threatens-vast-Anatarctic-ice-shelf-video

Craig Savage
(tremelo) - F

Locale: San Jacinto Mountains
energy subsidies on 05/10/2012 13:49:52 MDT Print View

hate energy subsidies?

"Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Keith Ellison launched a new piece of legislation that would repeal $113 billion of tax-breaks, handouts, and subsidies for the fossil fuel industry over the next 10 years."

"We’ll never get to renewable energy if we keep handing gobs of money to oil and coal and gas.

The bill introduced today would strip away these outrageous subsidies."


petition - act.350.org

jerry adams
(retiredjerry) - MLife

Locale: Oregon and Washington
Re: energy subsidies on 05/10/2012 14:52:26 MDT Print View

Thanks, I signed it, now I will get more spam email : )

It'll never go anywhere because the Republicans will unanimously vote against it, but eventually that pendulum will swing the other way, and this little bit will help.

What we really need is for the Republicans to take back their party, but not happening yet, e.g. Lugar got "tea-partied" in Indiana.

dan mchale
(wildlife) - MLife

Locale: Cascadia
skit scat on 05/10/2012 15:23:58 MDT Print View

"Perhaps she'd have been less surprised if she'd been aware of old Chinese records written by gardeners tending the gardens of the forbidden palace in Beijing."

This makes me think somebodies working on a screenplay for Monte Python. LOL

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Nature Journals and peer review on 05/13/2012 17:00:38 MDT Print View

David Olsen said:
Nature? Nope, no peer review there.

Errr...??
http://www.nature.com/authors/policies/peer_review.html