The Carbon Flame War
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Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Interesting on 11/24/2011 05:33:02 MST Print View

Jerry says:
Wow! Rapid decrease in temperature in October, cold November, snow in December

I'm impressed with that predicition : )


Hi Jerry, My adding the snow forecast for the NW maybe confused you. The rapid decline is in global temperature. As you no doubt realise, when it's winter in the northern hemisphere, it's summer in the southern hemisphere. So a falling global anomaly isn't a reflection of the onset of winter in one hemisphere, but an indication that the planet as a whole is cooling rapidly.

This was not expected by the people who promote the idea that more co2 emissions heat the planet up dangerously.

By the way, another 5000+ emails from the CRU have been released by FOIA.org. Some of them make interesting reading. Get ready for Climategate II.

A searchable version of Climategate 2 is online at http://di2.nu/foia/foia.pl and at http://foia2011.org

The original climategate email release can be searched here: http://yourvoicematters.org/cru/mailsearch.php

Edited by tallbloke on 11/24/2011 05:38:21 MST.

Stuart R
(Scunnered) - F

Locale: Scotland
Re: Re: Interesting on 11/24/2011 15:06:54 MST Print View

"A rapid fall in temperature in October is likely to be followed by a cold end to November"

No fall in temperature here: November will surely turn out to be one of the warmest for quite a number of years.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Re: Interesting on 11/24/2011 18:25:37 MST Print View

Stuart, please at least quote the whole sentence:

"A rapid fall in temperature in October is likely to be followed by a cold end to November after a fornight of stability, if the emulation of 2010 continues."

The weather is wild here tonight in Yorkshire. Lets see what next week brings before we pass judgement on my "cold end to November".

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
November forecast update: on 12/08/2011 04:14:20 MST Print View

A couple of months ago I said:

"A rapid fall in temperature in October is likely to be followed by a cold end to November after a fornight of stability, if the emulation of 2010 continues."

And then a fortnight ago I said:

The weather is wild here tonight in Yorkshire. Lets see what next week brings before we pass judgement on my "cold end to November".

As predicted, December has started with cold weather in the UK where I live at least. Strong gales, much sleet hail snow and rain. Icy pavements on two mornings as well.

How is it going in the U.S. Northwest?

Erik Basil
(EBasil) - M

Locale: Atzlan
It's happening on 12/08/2011 07:33:49 MST Print View

I live three miles from the beach, in Sun Diego California. It's been 32f or lower four days in a row, with ice all over my cars and surfboards. Dogs and cats, sleeping together. This is the start of forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave!

Thank you, James Watt.

Say, this is a long thread. Could someone summarize the best points made?

jerry adams
(retiredjerry) - MLife

Locale: Oregon and Washington
Re: November forecast update: on 12/08/2011 07:48:41 MST Print View

"How is it going in the U.S. Northwest?"

Porltand OR:

November average - 54 F, this year 50.3 F

This year last week of November - 50.5 F

December average is 47 F so the November/December transition should be about 50.5 F?

So, November was a little cooler than average but the last week was about average

But, if you're talking global climate change you have to look at global averages over long periods of time

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: November forecast update: on 12/08/2011 08:07:00 MST Print View

"But, if you're talking global climate change you have to look at global averages over long periods of time"

Hi jerry. No, I was just testing my ability to forecast shorter term changes in weather in the light of what I've learned about natural variation. It's not surprising to me if we get a 'cold', 'average' or 'warm' November. Interannual variation swamps longer term trends on a regional basis.

If you consider that the ocean basically controls the temperature of the surface, it's the heat content of the ocean that matters rather than a nebulous 'global average surface temperature'.

The oceans have been losing heat content since 2006. How long will this cooling go on for? Another few hundred years is my guess, with some warm-ups along the way. We're just around the top of the curve now.

temp-level

I guess we can expect warm to average conditions to continue for a while yet. My prediction is that we'll get a shorter term steep drop in temperatures with another in a couple of years time, lasting through until I win the $1000 dollar bet with Dean in handsome style.

Edited by tallbloke on 12/08/2011 08:25:15 MST.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Forecast for the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to 2015 on 12/10/2011 05:51:47 MST Print View

My friend M.A. Vukcevic has been doing some excellent research on the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the Arctic and North Atlantic. Here is his graph showing the likely immediate future of the AMO - a key global climate indicator.
.forecast for AMO to 2015

The full paper he has written is available here:
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/64/12/35/PDF/NorthAtlanticOscillations-I.pdf

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Update for January Global Lower Troposphere Temperature on 02/03/2012 07:34:34 MST Print View

Cold.

Global temperature is tumbling, just as I predicted it would.
Here's the latest graph from Dr Roy Spencer's site:

Jan21012 LT temps

It'll go lower yet.

It's been a while since I visited. Clearly the carbon flame war is no longer uppermost in people's minds. However, things got pretty hot over at tallbloke towers a few days after my last comment here.

The Norfolk Police turned up at my home with a warrant and siezed some of my computers, frightening my missus in the process.

Then I was subjected to some pretty outrageous online attacks from a couple of prominent warmists. I'm suing them for libel.

I didn't do my website traffic any harm though. Interest in the science I'm putting out there has increased dramatically. As a result I'm one of the five finalists in this years Bloggies awards in the 'Best European Blog' category.

The Police say I'm not suspected of any crime, but used their draconian powers to take my equipment away anyhow. I have my kit back at last, though I daren't use it as the drives are now 'evidence'.


I've been ultra-busy dealing with all that over the last month so I haven't had the chance to catch up with friends on BPL. So, Happy Christmas and Happy New Year everyone! :-)

If anyone here feels like showing some support, feel free to vote for my blog here:
http://bloggi.es#european

Anthony Watts has a good howto for the procedure and some suggestions for other blogs worth considering voting for here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/02/wuwt-and-other-climate-blogs-are-2012-bloggies-finalists/

Thanks for your consideration.

dan mchale
(wildlife) - MLife

Locale: Cascadia
ice on 02/03/2012 11:15:30 MST Print View

The melting Arctic ice does not support a contention that the oceans are cooling.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120201105126.htm


http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited by wildlife on 02/04/2012 14:00:59 MST.

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
Re: Update for January Global Lower Troposphere Temperature on 02/03/2012 14:38:19 MST Print View

Hi Rog

> The Norfolk Police turned up at my home with a warrant and siezed some of my computers
If you are serious, just what did the warrant specify?????

> The Police say I'm not suspected of any crime, but used their draconian powers to take
> my equipment away anyhow. I have my kit back at last, though I daren't use it as the drives
> are now 'evidence'.
And just how could they get a warrant if you are not suspected of a crime?
They have returned your computers but you can't use them?
This is stretching credibility.

Cheers

dan mchale
(wildlife) - MLife

Locale: Cascadia
seizure on 02/03/2012 18:17:51 MST Print View

They seized Dr Roy Spencer's computers on the same day.

I started reading this long thread and am up to about page 19 and found this interesting comment;

"Re: Re: The Carbon Flame War on 02/12/2009 16:32:12 MST
Roger... I, as a meteorologist during an advanced level meteorological course back in 1969, chose as my topic, "The Catastrophic Bushfires of Tasmania in 1967". Forty two years ago the popular concept of today was unheard of, and in fact had nothing to do with the fires. Natural cycles occur, and conditions leading to a final result also occur in nature. The sooner the populace realizes this instead of trying to place direct blame on an unrelated source, the better. These disasters are certainly regretable, but they are natural occurances."

I have thought for a awhile that now that we know Climate Change is a reality we could go back and start studying past weather events in terms of the concept. Afterall, the PPM of CO2 in 1967 was 322, a fair amount above the historical level of 280. As the article says, these numbers do not include concentrations of Methane and all the other greenhouse gases we add and still don't to this day;

http://www.carbonify.com/carbon-dioxide-levels.htm

Here is another relevant article about the history of Global Warming concepts;

http://www.pbs.org/now/science/climatechange.html

Interesting to see who Al Gore studied under.

Edited by wildlife on 02/03/2012 22:49:07 MST.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Update for January Global Lower Troposphere Temperature on 02/05/2012 06:00:19 MST Print View

Hi Roger C

> The Norfolk Police turned up at my home with a warrant and siezed some of my computers
If you are serious, just what did the warrant specify?????

That they could search and seize computers and related equipment. When they demanded my passwords, I told them they had a warrant to search my house, not my head.

> The Police say I'm not suspected of any crime, but used their draconian powers to take
> my equipment away anyhow. I have my kit back at last, though I daren't use it as the drives
> are now 'evidence'.
And just how could they get a warrant if you are not suspected of a crime?

They Used the PACE act (anti terrorism legislation).

They have returned your computers but you can't use them?

I've sealed the drives in evidence bags and lodged them with my legal team. I bought new equipment for Kath and myself with money donated by outraged bloggers and supporters worldwide.

This is stretching credibility.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/15/hacked-climate-emails-police-west-yorkshire
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/16/leo-hickman-factual-inaccuracy/
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/brace-brace-nyt-article-by-leslie-kaufman-incoming/
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/nyt-article-on-climategate-ends-with-mann-innuendo/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-16294420
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=10lUiNvpOYM
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/bbc-more-factual-inaccuracy-plus-some-spin/

If you need any more proof that what I'm saying is true, let me know. I have bucketfuls.

Cheers

Rog

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: seizure on 02/05/2012 06:07:56 MST Print View

Dan McHale says:
>I have thought for a a while that now that we know Climate Change is a reality


We all know that climate change is a reality. Some of us even realise the climate changed quite a lot before man set fire to coal...

Edited by tallbloke on 02/05/2012 06:17:22 MST.

Lyan Jordan
(redmonk)

Locale: Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
The Carbon Flame War on 02/05/2012 10:35:32 MST Print View

A pan full of ice water on a running stove doesn't really start to change temperature until the ice is gone.

once we get to the new ice age, we can replenish any lost sea ice, things we be fine.

Edited by redmonk on 02/05/2012 10:40:38 MST.

obx hiker
(obxcola) - MLife

Locale: Outer Banks of North Carolina
The Affair: A Play in Three Acts on 02/05/2012 12:59:14 MST Print View

Act 1. A Mid-Winters Nights Dream
Waking well before dawn this morning my mind wandered in search of a somnolence inducing subject of sufficient power to return me to the peaceful land of nod. The thoughts chased one another through my mind in such a tumult the I began to consider rising from bed and bedroom to make my way into the den for a peaceful review of recent threads on BPL..a sure cure for insomnia, when what a thought should appear, pulled by 8 tiny reindeer.

No wait but I did seize upon the recent verbal joust in this very thread and soon had a worthy subject to focus my wandering attentions.

Act 2: A Tale of 2 Rogers
The gentle reader will be advised to refer back in this thread to previous comments dating between February 3rd and sixth for the specifics relating to the following discussion:

I must admit my attention was captured by Roger C in effect calling out Roger T. in the post dated 2-3 whatever day that was in Australia. In fact when scanning over the post by Roger T on 2-3 my eyes had glazed over immediately upon seeing the graph/chart (like many or you….....oh really? You analyse charts thoroughly? Tell the truth! ) and I’d skipped over the rather interesting personal news contained in the remainder of the post; but I didn’t miss Roger C’s pointed questioning of these revelations, and was thereby induced to go back and read Roger T’s 2/3 post more carefully; if only in honor of the effort spent by Roger C in reading it through and actually making comment! Roger T/ Roger C. Is the reader becoming confused as well? HaHa you were never promised easy and you are backpackers inured to hardship and privation indeed reveling in same so soldier on!

Anywho my first thought was to ponder the question of Roger C’s motive. Was he acting in his role as a correspondent for the Blog, as an agent provocateur, trying to stir the bleep so to speak….....keep the world’s longest running and still vital and active thread moving along, propelled to new length and heights of verbal and expository glory etc etc ad nauseum? Did I warn the reader I’m a little loose on punctuation and verb subject agreement or even inclusion in the same sentence exploring my own Elmore Leonardian style in manic fits?

But I had to admit Roger C’s questions were practical and honestly sensible. In fact given the political situation in Great Britain with the Tory Parliament a seeming handmaiden to the interests of BIG ENERGY it was hard to conjure up a scenario (Given the location of subject matter I must insist the proper locution be given the term Scenario……. Nare… like nary… sea na(re) rio where was I ; oh yes. Roger T’s claim of a sinister police invasion, search warrents, computer impoundment. Hmmm all highly irregular if I may say so. There must be some other explanation.

Part 3: Elementary My Dear Watson

Why on earth would the local constabulary impound Roger T’s computers? That is the question! Using deductive reasoning I believe one can rule out persecution by the State. Roger T’s position as a denialist ……… Oh dear me there I have gone and done it using a term previously not agreed upon. Let me re-phrase. Roger T’s thoroughly expounded position as a skeptic on the issue of global warming (climate is in constant flux and therefore constantly changes) anyway his position is well known by the reader of this thread. Can one give a high percentage of likelihood to the premise that a warrant was obtained and executed and his computers and other personal effects seized, removed and impounded as a result of his active and public role as a climate warming skeptic? Or are other more sinister influences at work?

Could he have in unwitting innocence; with his undoubtedly large body of contacts and informants; been the recipient of privileged or classified information? Did a posting on his blog reveal in some way a knowledge of privileged information that could reasonably infer the possibility of a breach of confidentiality at the highest levels? Is anyone out there in the blogosphere other than myself interested at the coincidence of the warranted searce of Roger T’s home computers with the recent resignation by one of the highest ranking members of the Cameron Government as posted in the New York Times on Thursday 2-4?

“Chris Huhne, the energy and CLIMATE CHIEF, is accused of perverting the course of justice ........”

Can anyone really believe this resignation of the “Climate Chief” over a “Speeding Ticket” is honestly un-related, a mere coincidence and not potentially the biggest espionage case since the Profumo Affair?

I could go on………. But I will spare you all the tedium and myself the embarrassment. The foregoing was a lame Sunday afternoon attempt to relieve boredom and add a little levity to this thread. The events are purely fictional and any resemblance to actual personages is your own damned fault.

jerry adams
(retiredjerry) - MLife

Locale: Oregon and Washington
Re: The Carbon Flame War on 02/05/2012 13:10:14 MST Print View

Why aren't the Norfolk police impounding the computers of all the major Republican politicians?

obx hiker
(obxcola) - MLife

Locale: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Norfolk Republicans on 02/05/2012 14:00:59 MST Print View

If they could only find one! Lots of Tories in East Anglia. Must be a Saxon thing.

Roger Caffin
(rcaffin) - BPL Staff - MLife

Locale: Wollemi & Kosciusko NPs, Europe
Re: The Affair: A Play in Three Acts on 02/05/2012 14:11:45 MST Print View

> Roger C in effect calling out Roger T.
That is a little harsh. I stand by my claim that the police actions were incredible, although perhaps 'incompetent' might be closer to the truth. Did they really expect to find clues to the FOAI guy on Rog's machine? Or were they just 'being seen to be doing something'? Unreal.

> ponder the question of Roger C’s motive.
I can answer that one. Personal curiosity.

My thanks to RogT for his answer with references. All I can say is 'Blimey!'

Where do I sit on all this? I am an interested observer who keeps thinking of Galileo and phlogiston. All the data points to some climate change over recent times (we are seeing it here in Australia), but what drives it?

Cheers
PS: 'Save the Planet' is silly: it will survive. However, the human race may not.

Edited by rcaffin on 02/05/2012 14:13:01 MST.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: The Affair: A Play in Three Acts on 02/06/2012 04:31:51 MST Print View

Roger C says:
Blimey


Blimey hardly starts to cover it.

But I entirely understand your incredulity, and take no offense at your initial scepticism.

Edited by tallbloke on 02/06/2012 04:40:55 MST.