"Interesting to hear Rog thinks the pro warming side is driven by economics.
From the outsiders view, the pro-keepdoingwhateverthefcukwewanttomaximizeourprofitsatallcosts side has the most arguments that are driven by the desire to preserve maximum profits."
There are various levels in the debate. At the scientific level, the scientists marshal scientific arguments. The IPCC annual Jamboree at a (usually) warm location stopped debating science years ago. They promote the shaky science of co2 induced global warming as a given, and concentrate on economic questions.
Personally, I think getting the science right is the important precursor to making correct decision concerning economic policy. Pretending that the scientific issue is settled is not good enough when $billions of taxpayer money is at stake.
"People who consider the oceans to be the primary thing driving all other consequences of global warming seem to have won."
Well, not yet. But the reason I have been studying the correlation between solar variation and changes in ocean heat content is because all the energy in the Earth's climate system ultimately comes from the sun. The question of how much near surface air temperature is lifted by additional co2, while interesting, is in my opinion a bit of a sideshow, because the air is in general cooler than the ocean, and the second law of thermodynamics says that in general cooler things don't heat hotter things.
The enhanced greenhouse effect doesn't work by directly heating the ocean, but by raising the altitude at which the radiation of heat to space takes place at. The increase in co2, if it hasn't already been offset by the Earth's tendency to homeostasis, will theoretically have increased that altitude by a couple of hundred meters. However,one of the effects of the sun going into quiet mode since 2003 is that the thermosphere (a region of tenuous gas high above the stratosphere) has shrunk by 30%. No-one seems to know how much the height of the top of the troposphere might have been affected by this, but it looks like more heat is being radiated to space than was the case during the dizzy heights of global warming back in 1998.
This means the Earth's energy balance has gone into negative territory. The oceans, which have a big thermal capacity (the top two metres contain as much energy as the entire atmosphere) will cushion the air temperature values for a long time, and hopefully the sun will wake up and shake a leg before they have to give up too much of their heat. Could take 20-30 years before that happens though, if my calcs are on the mark.
During that time, winters could get pretty cold and a few weeks longer in the temperate regions of the northern hemisphere. Nothing to panic about, but some forethought about the effect of frost on late ripening crops and their planting times and ice on wind turbine blades is advisable.