The Carbon Flame War
Display Avatars Sort By:
Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Putting the Kettle on on 01/20/2011 04:40:25 MST Print View

Please take a look at spatial and temporal variation magnitudes before you start alrming the public with talk about "worrying trends".

Lynn Tramper
(retropump) - F

Locale: The Antipodes of La Coruna
Re: Re: Putting the Kettle on on 01/20/2011 13:12:30 MST Print View

I have looked at those things Rog. Perhaps I am looking at different data to you. That seems to be normal on this thread. Cherry picking which data set to use is one of the biggest issues relevant to this discussion.

Nick Gatel
(ngatel) - MLife

Locale: Southern California
Re: Re: Putting the Kettle on on 01/20/2011 17:44:57 MST Print View

Rog,

Here is a good one for you (ARkStorm). http://tinyurl.com/4sqe6pp

Public funded science at its best. Read the section of the 1861-62 storm, "The flooding was so bad it reduced taxable land by a third, bankrupted the state government..." hmm, is that an agenda?

You can click on the USGS link at the end of the article which states, "These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines."

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Queensland drought not global warming related on 01/21/2011 07:07:14 MST Print View

Cai, Wenju, Peter van Rensch, Tim Cowan, Arnold Sullivan, 2010: Asymmetry in ENSO Teleconnection with Regional Rainfall, Its Multidecadal Variability, and Impact. J. Climate, 23, 4944–4955.

doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1

Asymmetry in ENSO Teleconnection with Regional Rainfall, Its Multidecadal Variability, and Impact

Wenju Cai, Peter van Rensch, Tim Cowan, and Arnold Sullivan

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

Abstract An asymmetry, and its multidecadal variability, in a rainfall teleconnection with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described. Further, the breakdown of this relationship since 1980 is offered as a cause for a rainfall reduction in an ENSO-affected region, southeast Queensland (SEQ). There, austral summer rainfall has been declining since around the 1980s, but the associated process is not understood.

It is demonstrated that the rainfall reduction is not simulated by the majority of current climate models forced with anthropogenic forcing factors. Examination shows that ENSO is a rainfall-generating mechanism for the region because of an asymmetry in its impact: the La Niña–rainfall relationship is statistically significant, as SEQ summer rainfall increases with La Niña amplitude; by contrast, the El Niño–induced rainfall reductions do not have a statistically significant relationship with El Niño amplitude. Since 1980, this asymmetry no longer operates, and La Niña events no longer induce a rainfall increase, leading to the observed SEQ rainfall reduction. A similar asymmetric rainfall teleconnection with ENSO Modoki exists and shares the same temporal evolutions.

This breakdown is caused by an eastward shift in the Walker circulation and the convection center near Australia’s east coast, in association with a post-1980 positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Such a breakdown occurred before 1950, indicating that multidecadal variability alone could potentially be responsible for the recent SEQ rainfall decline. An aggregation of outputs from climate models to distill the impact of climate change suggests that the asymmetry and the breakdown may not be generated by climate change, although most models do not perform well in simulating the ENSO–rainfall teleconnection over the SEQ region.

Lynn, feel free to let me know which dataset you are talking about. Or is it a computer model?

Edited by tallbloke on 01/21/2011 07:09:07 MST.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Flying to Lisbon on 01/23/2011 14:39:37 MST Print View

Bags packed, passport in pocket. No mountains this week, I'll be scaling the heights of informed debate with some of the worlds foremost climate scientists, anthropologists, sociologists, philosophers of science, metrologists and computer wizards.

An exciting prospect!

I'll try to find time to post an impression from the coalface.

Thanks everybody for helping me articulate my way to where I'm going!

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Flying to Lisbon on 01/23/2011 16:59:06 MST Print View

"I'll be scaling the heights of informed debate with some of the worlds foremost climate scientists, anthropologists, sociologists, philosophers of science, metrologists and computer wizards."

Come back with your briefcase, not upon it. ;-)

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
Re: Re: Flying to Lisbon on 01/23/2011 17:18:06 MST Print View

Good luck! I know you'll do well. Keep us updated.

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
US says climate deal is not on the cards this year on 02/21/2011 12:05:09 MST Print View

U.S. Says a Binding Climate Deal ‘Not on Cards’ This Year
February 21, 2011, 1:32 PM EST

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- A legally binding accord to combat climate change “is not on the cards” at a December summit, because developing countries such as China, Brazil and India won’t commit to it, according to U.S. negotiator Todd Stern.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-21/u-s-says-a-binding-climate-deal-not-on-cards-this-year.html

peter vacco
(fluff@inreach.com) - M

Locale: no. california
really Nice stuff, good for scouts. model builders take note. on 03/06/2011 11:55:49 MST Print View

Hi Peter

Fair go - much too close to spam and totally irrelevant to this thread.

Cheers
Roger Caffin

Edited by rcaffin on 03/06/2011 16:21:56 MST.

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Where is Rog?? on 03/07/2011 21:09:16 MST Print View

Rog! We haven't heard from you since you sallied forth to do battle with the Warmista. What tidings do you bring from Lisbon? Please, procrastinate no longer for the embers are growing cold, and your interlocutors are dispersing to the 4 winds. The few that remain are reduced to querelous arguments over "eco-gear" and the ethical challenges inherent in buying Chinese goods. The situation grows more dire with each passing day.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 04:26:39 MST Print View

Hey Tom, thanks for thinking of me.

Truth is, the Lisbon Meeting was held under Chatham House Rules. This means I'm not supposed to talk about it, but I already shot my mouth off on a couple of sites and had my wrists slapped for it, so I'm waiting for the official report to come out so I can relay it here. I know it has been finalised, pretty much just waiting for the rubber stamp before release, so knowing a little of the E.U. bureaucracy, it should be out any year soon.

In the meantime, we can while away the days by arguing about ocean pH or anything else you fancy. Fire away. :-)

Nick Gatel
(ngatel) - MLife

Locale: Southern California
Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 12:47:28 MST Print View

Rog, the important thing we to determine is whether or not hitting 100 pages will melt down the BPL server.

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 13:00:22 MST Print View

beer for debate

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 16:32:14 MST Print View

"In the meantime, we can while away the days by arguing about ocean pH or anything else you fancy. Fire away. :-)"

Welcome back, Big Guy! I was starting to fear the worst. It would have been a shame to have this venerable thread come second to a shallow pretender like the ethics of buying Chinese goods in the race to 100. I'll wait for the official report before having at you with my usual abandon. Meantime, might I suggest we warm up with a friendly debate about the proper Ph of a good top fermented ale? If we get bored we can always digress into a similar discussion about Eastern European Pilsners, or Belgian Trappist Ales. ;-)

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 16:34:59 MST Print View

"the important thing we to determine is whether or not hitting 100 pages will melt down the BPL server."

Fear not, Nick. We have the technology; we can fix it. ;)

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 16:36:54 MST Print View

LOL

I knew we could count on you, George. We now have a quorum.

Rog Tallbloke
(tallbloke) - F

Locale: DON'T LOOK DOWN!!
Re: Re: Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/12/2011 16:44:51 MST Print View

Heh, nice suit George.

Tom, the problem with Trappist ales is that after a few, discussion becomes non-existent. Which is probably how the trappista stay silent.

As it happens, my brother bought me some home brewing kit for my birthday last month. When the weather warms up a bit (heh!) I'll get some ale brewed.

The bar Kath and I frequently fall into on the way home from work has some superb Belgian and German beers on tap. I try to resist on weekdays and stick to good honest northern workers beer. Timothy Taylors is always on, and they have a total of six real ales on the go all the time as well as the lagers from abroad. Spoilt for choice!

Cheers all!

George Matthews
(gmatthews) - MLife
Re: Re: Re: Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/13/2011 12:50:02 MDT Print View

Thanks. Was heading for a symphony pops performance. Had to dress up.

We went to a restaurant before the show which pairs Vietnamese cuisine and Belgian beer. I don't know why. But it is a busy place.

I did not try one, but here is their list. Next time I follow the quorum's recommendation - what's good:


Affligem - Dubbel 7% 750ml
Augustijn 8% 750ml
Biere de Miel 8% 750ml
Biere du Boucanier 11% 750ml
Canaster Winterscotch 9.5% 750ml
Chimay Ale - Cinq Cents 8% 750ml
Chimay Ale - Grande Reserve 9% 750ml
Chimay Ale - Premiere 7% 750ml
Chouffe Houblon 9% 750ml
Corsendonk Agnus 7.5% 750ml
Corsendonk Pater 7.5% 750ml
Delirium - Nocturnum 8.5% 750ml
Delirium - Tremens Ale 8.5% 750ml
Duchesse De Bourgogne 6.2% 750ml
Duvel 8.5% 750ml
Floreffe 8% 750ml
Foret 7.5% 750ml
Gouden Carolus Ambrio 8% 750ml
Gouden Carolus Grand Cru 10% 750ml
Gouden Carolus Hopsinjoor 8% 750ml
Gouden Carolus Rood 10% 750ml
Gouden Carolus Triple 8.5% 750ml
Grotten Brown by St. Bernardus 6.7% 750ml
Gulden Draak 10.5% 750ml
Karmeliet Tripel 8% 750ml
Kasteel bier - Donker 11% 750ml
Kasteel Bier Gouden Triple - D’or 11% 750ml
La Chouffe 8% 750ml
La Rulles Triple 8.4% 750ml
Liefmans - Framboise 4.5% 750ml
Lindemans - Cassis 4.5% 750ml
Malheur 10 10% 750ml
Maredsous 10 10% 750ml
Maredsous 8 8% 750ml
Mc Chouffe 8.5% 750ml
Moinette Blonde 8.5% 750ml
Nostradamus 9.5% 750ml
Petrus Gouden Tripel 7.50% 750ml
Piraat 10.5% 750ml
Poperings Hommel Ale 7.50% 750ml
Premium St Louis - Kriek 4.5% 750ml
Premium St Louis - Peche 4.5% 750ml
Saison D’ Erpe-Mere 7.5% 750ml
Saison Dupont 6.5% 750ml
Saxo 7% 750ml
St Feuillien Brune 7.5% 750ml
St Feuillien Tripel 8.5% 750ml
St. Bernardus Abt 12 10% 750ml
Val-Dieu Blond 6% 750ml
Westmalle Dubbel 7% 750ml
Westmalle Tripel 9 .5% 750ml

Diplomatic Mike
(MikefaeDundee)

Locale: Under a bush in Scotland
Belgian beer on 03/13/2011 12:59:52 MDT Print View

No Leffe in the list?
I had way too many of them on Friday night! :)

Tom Kirchner
(ouzel) - MLife

Locale: Pacific Northwest/Sierra
Re: Re: Re: Re: Get the beer, Rog is here on 03/13/2011 17:57:35 MDT Print View

"Tom, the problem with Trappist ales is that after a few, discussion becomes non-existent. Which is probably how the trappista stay silent."

Good hypothesis, Rog. That has certainly been my experience.

"Timothy Taylors is always on, and they have a total of six real ales on the go all the time as well as the lagers from abroad. Spoilt for choice!"

We suffer from a similar affliction up here in the Pacific Northwest. So many ales, so little time. :(

BTW, is Shepherd Neame still on the scene? Or Shepherd Anemic, as the locals used to call it. It was a local affair when I ran across it back in the late 70's, and quite agreeable. I imagine it's come a ways if it survived at all.