Speaking at the Centenary dinner of the Royal College of Science Association (science graduates of Imperial College) on Dec 9th at the Criterion Restaurant, Piccadilly Circus next to Eros, Piers Corbyn astrophysicist explained the reasons he has discovered from research at WeatherAction for the large observed 60 year 'enevelope' fluctuation in world and USA temperatures (graph above)

"We know the magnetic ('Hale') cycle of the sun of about 22yrs shows up in world and many regional temperatures and river flood data and that the moon interupts the rush of charged particles coming from the sun - the solar wind - and also affects the weather" he said.

"The beats between the solar magnetic cycle and the cycle of eclipses - or more precisely the Retreat of the lunar nodes - and then doubled because of North-South polar effects give the observed saw tooth envelope" he said.

For solar cycle frequency Z (=approx 1/11.05 per yr); and Retreat of the lunar nodes R (=1/18.61 per yr) we have beats, including the doubling effect as

B = 2 (R - Z/2) = 2R - Z

which gives a period 1/B of about 59 (+/-1) years depending on the precise value of Z

"There are also other natural changes and cycles going on but this result means the world will continue its current general cooling to around 2030 and it's nothing to do with CO2" said Piers to the dinner guests in what must be one of the shortest scientific papers* in one of the most salubrious locations around.

*The paper will also be published in a scientific journal.

Edited by tallbloke on 12/22/2008 03:13:30 MST.

Mike Reid asked:
> What effect is methane having on the planet?

Less than carbon dioxide. A lot, lot less than water vapour, which accounts for 95% of the greenhouse effect, which keeps our planet at a nice habitable 13C or so, rather than the -30 it would be otherwise.



To get their model results, the AGW team know that co2 alone is not enough, so they postulate that the slight rise in temperature which would be caused by a doubling of co2 will cause lots more water vapour to get up high into the atmosphere, causing a 'runaway feedback effect'.

Thing is, it's not happening. Humidity has been falling rather than increasing in the upper atmosphere since the '50's. Either the models are wrong, or the atmosphere is wrong.



The value the modelers use for co2 is out of whack with observation too. (hi Skots :-)

Here's a graph from Bill Illis which rewards careful study. The co2 curve used by the GIGO modelers is in black. Actually observed co2 is in red.



So, from the pre-industrial 280parts per million of co2 in the atmosphere to the current 385ppm, the temperature rose 0.7C or 1.5f during the 20th century warming. even if it carried on increasing to 550ppm (Jim Hansen says we'll all fry if it tops 400) temperature will only go up another 1.1C or 2f. Right now we could do with that. By 2020 we'll be praying for it if Piers is right.

That about wraps it up for now. Stay warm and safe and have a cool yule everyone. :-)

Edited by tallbloke on 12/22/2008 04:29:38 MST.

> in what must be one of the shortest scientific papers* in one of the most celubrious locations around.

EDIT: That should be 'salubrious'.

Cheers

Thanks Roger C, corrected, tho' I didn't write it. The venue is obviously a salon for celebs. ;-)

Original link is http://co2sceptics.com/news.php?id=2248

Happy new year to everyone!

OK, I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction about what the next four years has in store for us temperature-wise. Time will tell whether I end up wearing clown shoes or an equally big pair of down booties.

I've extended this graph of lower troposphere temperature data with my prediction of what the short term trends will be out to 2013.


To flesh it out a bit, here's what I see:

A cold 2008-2009 winter and late start to spring will be followed by a weak El Nino developing from march and peaking around august causing a lot of rain in the U.S. After that, temperatures will plunge to the levels we saw in the mid seventies, brace for another very cold winter. A slight recovery in 2010 will be followed by further falls in early 2011 and then a steady ride through towards 2013 with clear skies, sunny summers in the northern hemisphere, bitterly cold winters, low precipitation and hard frosts in spring.

Plan your gear buying and trips around this and heap praise or blame on me later. :-)

Edited by tallbloke on 01/06/2009 05:35:50 MST.

Back in 2007, the UK Met office at Hadley said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070810.html
Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre will unveil the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published on 10 August 2007 in the journal Science. The paper includes the Met Office's prediction for annual global temperature to 2014.

Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.

These predictions are very relevant to businesses and policy-makers who will be able to respond to short-term climate change when making decisions today. The next decade is within many people's understanding and brings home the reality of a changing climate.

=========================================
But the tune seems to be changing. Now the Met is saying this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4534358/Snow-Britain-Further-snow-and-ice-forecast-for-rest-of-the-winter.html
"Despite global warming there could be further colder-than-average winters in the years ahead as the climate cools naturally, the Met Office believes. Mr Britton said that the last 10-year assessment – carried out in 2004 – suggested a decade where global warming would be held back by a natural cooling trend. But beyond 2014 the climate will resume its warming trend, he said."

Given the forecasting skill of climate models, perhaps the Met is wise to back both horses. Seems a bit like they want to have their cake and eat it though.

Kath and I are off for a ramble across the frozen waste of Ilkley Moor today. The snow here is around 8" (24" in Cornwall and Devon!) and it's showing no signs of melting. More is forecast for tonight.

It was terrible to read of the fires in Victoria at the moment. I hope Arapiles folks aren't affected, and extend sympathy and condolences to those caught up in the terrifying ordeal.

Perhaps the Australian govt could be doing more. This from a contributor to another forum:

Alan Chappell:
"I worked for a Co. that built an insert for a Antonov An 124 transport aircraft, the insert would take 110 tons of water and could discharge at predetermined rates, this would have made it the worlds biggest firefighter, it is a perfect aircraft for this type of opperation, the owner of the Company offered the equipment and a contract lease on a An 124 to the Australian Government, the response was ” this large aircraft is not acceptable in Australian airspace as it an atmospheric pollutant” If anybody is interested the equipment is still complete (15 tons with ground based equipment) and other than tests (4) never used, as the boss decided that it was better to let the idiots burn."

I heard on the news last night that an arrest had been made of a man suspected of arson. What on earth would motivate someone to deliberately set a bush fire going?

Hi Roger T,

Thanks for your concerns about the Victorian Bushfires, it is a very tragic situation, the death toll is now up to 108 and rising and over 700 homes have been destroyed. My heart goes out to all of the victims and families.

>Perhaps the Australian govt could be doing more. This from a contributor to another forum:

Having seen what one of these fire storms can do in the Canberra fires of 2003, I do not think one or to or even a dozen of those Antonov An 124 transport fire fighting aircraft would have made much of a difference in the stopping one of these fire storms, they are huge and can travel at incredible speeds.

Fire is part of the ecology of the Australian bush, it has evolved to burn, many plants and trees need fire to regenerate, unburnt it is very beautiful and we choose to put our houses in the middle of it, every year many homes are destroyed by bushfires and some years people die. The bush will recover and so will the survivors and the towns will be rebuilt.

This year is very bad for fires as we are in the middle of a record breaking drought and we are currently having record breaking high temperatures, many places are experiencing weeks of temperatures above 40C and many of those days over 45C.

The irony of it all is that in Northern Queensland they are currently experiencing record breaking floods.


Tony

> an insert for a Antonov An 124 transport aircraft, the insert would take 110 tons of water

The real problem with this sort of large aeroplane is the huge recycle time. It has to land on a proper airstrip, fill with water, take off, then fly CONSIDERABLE distance to the fire. You could be talking a 15 - 30 minute cycle. That's futile.

The heavy choppers (Sky Cranes) we use for fire-fighting stay near the fire. They hover over a dam or a pool, suck up water in something like 30 - 60 seconds, and then fly for maybe 30 - 60 seconds to the fire front and dump. They are carrying a fair bit of water each time, and cycle fast. We have a LOT of these choppers, and use them intensely.
.

.
You can see the turbo engine they use on top of the body, with twin inlets. I don't know the power rating, but it is HUGE! And it howls.

Cheers
PS: taken from my verandah - they were using my next-door neighbour's dam.

Edited by rcaffin on 02/08/2009 15:00:18 MST.

Hi Tony,
Maybe things will cool down a bit now; this just in from a correspondent in Sydney:

"Yeah today our temps are 20d c lower - with many areas in the 20s, a big drop in temps likely to be like this all week"

Nature is awesome, as is the stupidity of arsonists, if there were any. I see your point about the Antonovs, having witnessed a forest fire out of the plane window as we flew into Alicante a fortnight ago. They were using planes there, being so close to the sea. They just scooped water straight out of the Med.

We were climbing in the area of the fire a week later. here are a couple of pics:

This one is at the top of the 'chimney' just below the col between Monte Ponoche and Puig Campagna.


This one is part of the fire damaged hillside.

On the other side of Puig Campagna there was a fire three years ago. the scrub has recovered well, but the pinsappo's are gonners.

Edited by tallbloke on 02/08/2009 16:24:17 MST.

Hi Roger C, wow, so there was a fire near to your place?
Judging by the size of the engines and chopper in comparison to the MD902's the Yorks Air Ambulance uses, I'd guess those engines are developing something in the region of 4,500 horsepower each.

Great shots by the way.

Edited by tallbloke on 02/08/2009 16:30:00 MST.

> so there was a fire near to your place?
'near' is not quite how I would put it ...

It started a long way away, and went past our place at about 20 km/hr, with a strong hot wind driving it. This sort of speed is only medium: really bad fires travel much faster. Then they start to 'spot fire' ahead ...

We were about 100 metres from the edge, but very fortunately there was a sealed road between us and it - with a lot of fire trucks on it. However, we spent the next few days removing all the burnt leaves from around the house: they carpeted the ground.

General characteristics of CH-54 Sky Crane (Wikipedia)
* Crew: 3
* Payload: 20,000 lb (9,000 kg)
* Length: 88 ft 6 in (26.97 m)
* Rotor diameter: 72 ft 0 in (21.95 m)
* Height: 25 ft 5 in (7.75 m)
* Disc area: 4071.5 ft² (378.24 m²)
* Empty weight: 19,800 lb (8,980 kg)
* Max takeoff weight: 47,000 lb (21,000 kg)
* Powerplant: 2× Pratt & Whitney T73-P-700 turboshaft engines, 4,800 shp (3,580 kW) each

Performance
* Maximum speed: 150 mph, 240 km/h
* Cruise speed: 115 mph, 185 km/h
* Range: 230 mi, 370 km
* Service ceiling 18,330 ft (5,600 m)
* Rate of climb: 1,330 ft/min (6.75 m/s)

Cheers

Dear Rog

"It was terrible to read of the fires in Victoria at the moment. I hope Arapiles folks aren't affected, and extend sympathy and condolences to those caught up in the terrifying ordeal."

Thanks for the PM on Saturday - for some reason I can't reply to PMs as the site insists that I don't have a PM set up, which clearly I do ... must speak to Addie about it.

Thanks for the query about my family - they are all fine: although the Remlaw fire started on my parents' neighbour's property, fortunately for them it was south of them and the wind was a northerly. The conditions were atrocious - the winds were 60 - 100 km/h, red-hot and the air temperature out at the farm was over 48 C. A neighbouring town's official max was 48.8 C. I was tracking the fires on the web and got a bit of a shock when Remlaw Road, Remlaw came up. I just hoped that the road info was correct because I knew that that particular road was to the south of my parents' place. My invalid aunty's place was also under threat from a separate fire but by the time my brother got there the neighbours were there looking after her.

The weather was ... worrying. We had three consecutive days in Melbourne over 43 C, and on the Saturday parts of Melbourne were hitting 48C. Farmers in the north of Victoria were recording temperatures of up to 52 C, which makes sense if the official temps were nearly 49 C ...

Regards

Arapiles

Hi Arapiles,
really glad to hear all your folks are ok, but blimey, that's too close, and way too hot for comfort. It's been all over the news here in the UK, partly because Brit's have lost relatives over there. heart rending.

Much has been made of the police investigation too. I just don't understand the mentality of anyone who would start a fire deliberately. What on earth could be the motivation for such a heinous act?

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/750345/arsonists-lit-churchill-fire-nixon

Also, a heated discussion (sorry) around issues of firebreak clearance and 'green policies' going on here.
http://tinylink.com/?1c16IJDohe

I quoted Roger C's observations about the fire fighting planes and choppers. Hope that's ok with you Roger.

I see Arapiles has added some comments to that thread. Good on you mate, I like to see comments from both sides on that site. There is a lot of ill informed comment on this issue and it's good to get the skinny from someone who knows the territory.

Edited by tallbloke on 02/12/2009 07:07:29 MST.

This just in from the UK MET office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090211.html
“Recent headlines have proclaimed that Arctic summer sea ice has decreased so much in the past few years that it has reached a tipping point and will disappear very quickly. The truth is that there is little evidence to support this. Indeed, the record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer sea ice increasing again over the next few years. This diverts attention from the real, longer-term issues. For example, recent results from the Met Office do show that there is a detectable human impact in the long-term decline in sea ice over the past 30 years, and all the evidence points to a complete loss of summer sea ice much later this century."

I personally take the "recent results" bit with a pinch of salt, as it relies on model output, not observation.
So there you have it, global warming catastrophe postponed until "much later this century" :-)
Notice also how it's "recent headlines" which are to blame for the tipping point nonsense, not the MET or climate scientists.....

Let's get back to cutting down all the trees, depleting all the oil, and polluting the air...because surely this proves that no harm will come of that at all!

Oh....wait....

On the contrary, lets get back to some real environmentalism without the global warming hype. Unfortunately, the climate doom mongers have done a lot of harm to the credibility of the environmental movement and a lot of people will react as you outlined Nate.

Hansen, Mann, Schmidt et al are about to reap the whirlwind...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/feb/11/climate-change-misleading-claims
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090211.html

Edited by tallbloke on 02/12/2009 10:55:32 MST.

Really, I think you have this backwards. Environmentalism wasn't taken seriously until climate change was taken seriously. (Remember the "tree-huggers" stigma, back in the 90's?) Now, a majority of Americans are concerned about global warming/environmental issues, and even higher majorities for more educated/civilized nations.....seems to me like the climate change issue has mainstreamed environmental concerns in a way that saving the spotted owl and the rainforests never did.

Hi Roger,

This is a quote from one of the big fire fighting helicopters pilots, "On Saturday it didn't matter how many aircraft you had," he said "there was just too many fires. I do not know how they got started but there just everywhere."

On the "The Carbon Flame War"

I do not know if you have ever been to Australia, if you have not then I would suggest you visit us sometime and go for an long drive through the Southern Australian country side, talk to some of the people who live there and tell them that global warming does not exist, over here even the most ardent critics of global warming are starting to come around, our rivers are in crisis, the bush is burning like it has never before.

A stated on this thread before, I work with scientists that study the climate and they are convinced that global warming is real.

Tony

Hi Tony,
nothing would give me greater pleasure than to take an extended trip round the continent of Australia to see it's rich diversity of landscape, flora, fauna and climate.

I have never denied that the world's average temperature crept up during the C20th. I don't deny 'global warming' as such. My issue is with the very dubious methodology and data practices of a clique of climate scientists known as 'The Team', who have warped and twisted the scientific method out of all recognition over the last 20 years.

I'll add more to this post later to explain myself but right now I have to go help cook dinner. :-)